The Doctor: Think Think Think Think Think Think Stupid Doctor. Stupid Stupid Stupid [an idea hits him] Handsome Doctor!  Adorable, hugely intelligent, but still approachable Doctor!

Doctor Who The Pyramid at the End of the World 2017

Hey Guess what?  For a brief moment I thought Democrat house organ Politico has noticed that there is a difference between media coverage of Democrat “enthusiasm” and actually winning elections!

nearly a year after Sanders’ presidential run fell short, one thing is missing in the afterglow — a reliable string of victories at the ballot box.

The losses are piling up. Earlier this month, Democrat Heath Mello, whom Sanders campaigned with, failed to unseat a Republican in Omaha’s race for mayor. Kimberly Ellis, the candidate endorsed by Our Revolution, the successor group to Sanders’ presidential campaign, lost a fiercely contested race for California Democratic Party chair. And on Thursday night, Republican Greg Gianforte bested Rob Quist, another Democrat for whom Sanders campaigned, in a nationally watched House race in Montana.

Speaking at a victory party, Gianforte called the election proof “Bernie Sanders and Nancy Pelosi can’t call the shots here in Montana.”

Could it be that the media has finally reached a stage of self awareness?  Actually no.  The clue to what Politico is really doing is out there.  Not so much in the piece, although it hints toward it,  nor its title and sub title “Sanders revolution hits a rough patch Bernie’s supporters struggle to capture the actual levers of power.” which again hints toward the message they want to send.

No the real message is in the URL of the piece “http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/29/bernie-sanders-ballot-losses-238889 (emphasis mine)

These aren’t “Democrat” ballot losses, these aren’t “liberal” ballot losses, they aren’t even Hillary ballot losses, these losses belong to Bernie Sanders who apparently can’t bring the party over the finish line.

I suspect Politico’s sudden realization “energy” doesn’t equal votes has more to do with marginalizing Bernie Sanders supporting the Democrat Establishment and Hillary Clinton in particular’s attempt to drive Democrats back into the “mainstream” fold than pointing out that the party is all smoke.  It the MSM’s attempt to associate these losses with Bernie rather than the party

Ah the democrats and their media allies, out to get Bernie during the primaries and still out to get him when the day is done.  I wonder how long after the rest of the MSM picks up this meme before Sanders supports figure that out?

by Linda Szugyi

Following state and local politics is a pretty tough thing to do when you move every couple of years.  Since we don’t have cable and I rarely turn on the local channels, Florida’s 13th District special election slipped right by.  All I managed to do was make sure it wasn’t my district.  It was an important election, though.  At least until David Jolly won.  With a GOP victory, maybe it wasn’t so important after all.

Regardless of its value as a harbinger, the special election did spark enough interest in me to look up the prospects for my own district, Florida’s 14th.  The spark was quickly doused by the lack of information about those running against Democrat incumbent Kathy Castor.

Both Politics1 and US Elections list two Republican candidates, John Mark Grey and John Coney.  While most folks listed as candidates for office in the state of Florida in 2014 already have a website linked, neither of these gentlemen do.  I know, it’s still early in the year.  The primaries aren’t held until August.  Still, it’s frustrating when even the oddballs have websites up and running.

The news about my district is even more disheartening:  No Obstacles To Kathy Castor’s Progress.  And look at this map of House races, where Castor floats safely in her little blue boat amid a red sea.  She won reelection in 2012 with 70% of the vote.  The closest race she ran was in 2010, when she got 60% of the vote.

Is my district as hopeless as it seems?  Since Kathy Castor continues to wear her support of Obamacare as a badge of honor, she should be vulnerable.  For heaven’s sake, she continues to display on her congressional website Politifact’s 2013 Lie of the Year:  If you like your health care plan, you can keep it.  (Hat tip.)

Kathy Castor

Are either of the listed Republicans serious candidates?  Will more candidates surface?

By the way, another special election will be held on June 24th, in Florida’s 19th District.  Will it get as much attention as the 13th District did?

We’ll see.  Stay tuned.

I’m one of Da Tech Guy’s Magnificent Seven guest writers.  If you like our writing, please consider subscribing to Da Tech Guy’s Blog so that he may continue to host The Magnificent Seven.  Thanks.

**********************************************************************

Olimometer 2.52

It’s Monday and with 8 days left to the month I am still over $850 shy of the Mortgage that’s due in a week.

That’s why you don’t see the weekly goal this morning, because if I make that goal I’ll still be nearly $700 shy to pay the bills this month.

We had a good start yesterday but I still need a minimum of four $25 tip jar hitters every day for the next nine days simply to come up a mere $100 short.

It is still possible to make our goal but only you help. If there was ever a time for you to kick in if you were thinking of it, it’s now.

So I’m asking you to hit DaTipJar below if you possibly can.

 

With 61 more $20 a month subscribers this site will be able to cover its bills for a full year.

I would ask that you do subscribe by hitting the button below. If your finances allow it, consider choosing Hat level or better. A subscription comes not only with exclusive commentary, but on a weekly basis you will have the opportunity to get direct access to me by phone to provide feedback or suggestions to make sure this site is worthy of your financial support and patronage.


 

Mr. Spock: Lieutenant, I am half-Vulcanian. Vulcanians do not speculate. I speak from pure logic. If I let go of a hammer on a planet that has a positive gravity, I need not see it fall to know that it has in fact fallen.

Star Trek: Court Martial 1967

Sherlock: He?
Mycroft: Obviously.
Sherlock: Why? Size of the hat?
Mycroft: Don’t be silly. Some women have large heads too. No, he’s recently had his hair cut. You can see the little hairs adhering to the perspiration stains on the inside.
Sherlock: Some women have short hair too.
Mycroft: Balance of probability

Sherlock The Empty Hearse 2014
(with thanks to Planet Claire for the transcript)

In this business it’s impossible to keep track of everything going on.  Once in a while something falls through the cracks for me it was the special election in Florida 13.

I may have heard the names of the candidates in passing and as I recall the democrat said something embarrassing a bit ago on immigration, but if you asked me on Sunday about the race I could tell you nothing intelligent about it.  Nor have I had time to search the web for any info.  All I know is what I’ve seen in passing on twitter and on Morning Joe today.

Both have been interesting lessons in the balance of probability.

Let’s start with twitter,  yesterday I saw the following tweet from Greg Sergeant of the Washington Post The Plum Line:

One of the things I’ve learned in these last five years is how the media tends to work to advance a meme to set expectations.  It is almost axiomatic that when a race’s national implications are downplayed by a side it means that side is doing poorly.  Given the balance of probability being familiar with Mr. Sargent’s writing & the content of that tweet I drew the following conclusion:

It was a reasonable assumption, but the reason why it is called the balance of “probability” rather than “certainly”  is once in a while things fall outside of it.

It turns out Mr. Sargent was part of a longer conversation with Rick Wilson a fellow out of Florida I follow whose opinion I trust.  In the full context of that conversation they both agreed this would not be a test of Obamacare.  Mr Sargent brought this to my attention & further tweeted…

It’s a tad embarrassing to be wrong but it’s also pleasant to see a MSM stalwart reporting rather than spinning.  I’ll keep that in mind the next time I read a Sargent tweet.

……..

24 hours later  I turned on Morning Joe and saw this segment leading the 8 AM hour on Fl-13.

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

I found several things interesting about their Fl-13 coverage:

1. This story led the 8 AM hour (which means it opened the 6 AM hour) Given the amount of news out there from the Malaysia Airline disaster to Ukraine to the “Climate Change Palozza) I was surprised to see how much prominence the story was given.

2. The segment talks about what this race means in terms of Obamacare as an issue but Alex Sink unlike the Senate Candidates in trouble for the left was not in congress when Obamacare was passed so she doesn’t have to defend that vote.

3. The libertarian candidate who is apparently in some polls pulling as much as 13% was not mentioned in this segment.

When I went to the Morning Joe site to get the video above I discovered that FL-13 was part of the opening segment of the 7 AM hour as well kicking in 6 minutes into the start and took up the rest :

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

It seems strange to me that you can do 12 minutes on FL-13 and what it means nationally and not point out there is a 3rd party candidate libertarian.

It also seems strange to turn this a race into a referendum / test case on Obamacare and it’s defense without pointing out the Democrat Candidate Alex Sink is one of the few democrats in a key race with no direct connection to Obamacare.

Given the function of MSNBC & the fact that Morning of Joe is the first political show of the day the balance of probability suggests that the White House & MSM expect Alex Sink to win that race. It further suggests the purpose of Tuesday’s Morning Joe segments is battlefield prep establishing a meme for 2014.

If I’m correct then tomorrow, barring some incredible news story like the resignation of president Obama or Miley Cyrus entering  a convent Morning Joe will lead with the Alex Sink victory in Fl-13 and spend multiple segments in every hour talking about how it means the tide has turned on Obamacare for democrats, and the rest of the drive by media will not only pick up that story and run with it for the rest of the day but will point to this race as an example of how things as not as bad for the left in 2014 as the GOP & polls would have you believe.

I think that’s the plan, and it will be up to the GOP turnout efforts in the district to foil it.

Given my error concerning Mr. Sargent’s tweet you might think it odd that I draw such conclusions without more information, maybe the GOP will pull it off, maybe the left is overly optimistic, maybe the libertarian will poll way below expectations all of those things could happen, but the thing about the balance of probability is this, while things sometime fall outside of it over time it tends to assert itself.

It’s 11:08 EST right now. In less than 20 hours we’ll find out if I’m right.

Update: PPP had the race 48 Sink, 45 Jolly & Overby 6 and yet David Jolly managed to pull it out. winning 48.5% of the vote with 46.7$ for Sink and & 4.8% for libertarian Overby.

Given the amount of attention they gave this race today Morning Joe is going to be REALLY interesting tomorrow morning.

**************************************************************

Weekly Goal $365
42/365 dollars

It’s Tuesday and we are $42 dollars toward this week’s goal of $365.

If you think our work here is worthy of your support I ask you consider hitting DaTipJar below.

 

 

With 61 more $20 a month subscribers this site will be able to cover its bills for a full year.

I would ask that you do subscribe by hitting the button below.  If your finances allow it, consider choosing Hat level or better.  A subscription comes not only with exclusive commentary, but on a weekly basis you will have the opportunity to get direct access to me by phone to provide feedback or suggestions to make sure this site is worthy of your financial support and patronage.


 

The Sanford Bostic race in SC 1 is starting to generate some interest.

The Washington Post gave some background.

Sanford won 37 percent of the vote in last week’s primary; Bostic barely edged into the runoff with 13 percent support. Sanford had more than $270,000 to spend as of the mid-March; Bostic had only about $57,000 in his campaign account. Bostic, notably lives just outside the 1st district boundary.

Those fact standing alone would mean this primary is over, except for this:

Sanford’s portrayed himself as a strong fiscal conservative and implicitly asked voters for forgiveness in his TV ads. While he doesn’t explicitly mention it, Sanford’s disappearance from the state in 2009 and admission to an extramarital affair is what he’s implicitly asking voters to forgive.

and this:

“I don’t know the other guy at all,” said Mulvaney, of Bostic. “Here’s what I do know about it. His support base is with the homeschoolers and the Christian right. And those folks are extraordinarily dedicated, and they will show up on April 2.”

Normally when you have a candidate with this big of a lead and money difference you would ignore the other guy and plow forward but we’ve seen elbows thrown at Bostic, one over signing a fairly unknown pledge, another  over funding and even some elbows aimed at Ali Akbar grazing the candidate.

While the entire strange bedfellows business is amusing what really matters is:  How does it affect the race locally and nationally?  On that line there is significant news that dwarfs all this shadowboxing:

Republican Curtis Bostic, fighting a David-and-Goliath battle against former South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford in a GOP congressional primary runoff, landed his first major national endorsement today from Rick Santorum.

“I am pleased to announce our endorsement of Curtis Bostic in South Carolina’s first congressional district,” said Santorum, who waged his own against-the-odds campaign against Mitt Romney for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012. ”Curtis’ groundswell finish to a runoff spot signals a win for the strength of his grassroots supporters and his robust conservative values.”

Santorum, who co-founded the 501(c)4 advocacy group Patriot Voices with his wife, Karen, is expected to campaign for Bostic in the 1st District later this week. “We must continue that momentum for Curtis into the runoff election, and I look forward to joining conservatives across South Carolina in helping to elect Curtis Bostic to the U.S. House of Representatives,” Santorum said.

Unlike the various flea bites this news drew both local and national attention: and the involvement of Santorum’s pac will lesson Sanford’s 15-1 funding edge.

This highlights the truism of this race, Sanford for all his money, is worried. He’s right to be. Under normal circumstances you would never see a headline like this

Opinions split on whether Bostic can topple Sanford in GOP runoff

…Nor a poll in SC saying this:

With a week to go before ex-Gov. Mark Sanford and ex-County Councilman Curtis Bostic face off in the 1st District Republican primary runoff, a hypothetical head-to-head general election poll shows Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch keeping pace with both of her prospective GOP opponents.

A new survey conducted over the weekend by North Carolina-based Public Policy Polling (PPP) shows Colbert Busch leading Sanford by a margin of 47% to 45%, and tying Curtis Bostic with 43%.

And those numbers showing Mr. Colbert’s sister ahead of Sanford are as Real Clear Politics put it:

Before the late-night comedians and political press are handed an off-year election gift in the form of this high-profile contest

and for those who don’t understand why this is a gift for comics…

Alas, name recognition is a two-edged sword for Sanford, who is perhaps best known for an embarrassment that made the phrase “hiking the Appalachian Trail” a smutty double-entendre in 2009. One late-June weekend that year — the weekend of Father’s Day, to be exact — the governor’s whereabouts became a national mystery. Neither his family nor his staff nor South Carolina law enforcement could find Sanford, whose name had been bandied about as a possible 2012 Republican presidential contender. Before search parties could be sent to find the allegedly missing hiker, however, Sanford flew back from Argentina to South Carolina and held one of the most surreal press conferences in political history. He told how a “remarkable friendship” with a woman he met in Argentina a year earlier had “sparked into something more than that.” He spoke of “trying to get my heart right” and said he had “spent the past five days of my life crying in Argentina.” Sanford’s description of Maria Belen Chapur as his “soul mate” was, as Daily Caller columnist Yates Walker said, “possibly the most sociopathic moment ever captured on live television.”

Anyone with eyes knows a Sanford win in the primaries would be a disaster for the GOP leading to a classic, Heads I win tails you lose moment for Republicans, consider:

1. If Sanford wins in the general election whenever there is an issue involving social issues or morality he will be the person ABCCBSNBCCNNMSNBCCURRENTNPR highlights. The MSM will make sure Sanford becomes the face of the GOP for the next two years at least.

2. If Colbert Bush wins the narrative will be totally different, it will be all about how the president and the liberal agenda is spreading and powerful because it was able to win in South Carolina. Over and over the left will reference it as a reason why the GOP is losing the argument and how popular President Obama and the liberal agenda is. As far as ABCCBSNBCCNNMSNBCCURRENTNPR “Mark Sanford” will not have ever existed.

Conservatives and members of the GOP are (hopefully) not stupid enough to let them happen, thus a small primary for an open seat have become a race of significance.

As of course because of this  Robert Stacy McCain is prepared to head on down to cover it:

OK, I never heard the name “Curtis Bostic” until last week, when he finished second to Mark Sanford in the South Carolina 1st District primary. Now, Bostic has been endorsed by Rick Santorum and polls show Bostic doing better than Sanford against Stephen Colbert’s sister.

So it’s obviously time for a road trip and, with the GOP runoff next Tuesday, it looks like I’ll spend Easter weekend in South Carolina.

Whether he reports David beating Goliath or a disaster for Conservatism will be up to the people of South Carolina’s 1st district.

No matter what decision the voters make,  it won’t be boring.

********************************************

Olimometer 2.52

You know my opinion I think it would be a great idea to drop a few dollars toward Curtis Bostic campaign. I also think that Stacy’s Shoe Leather Fund is worthy particularly since he is the model that I have tried to emulate.

If you can spare a few dollars to them, I’d certainly encourage it. As for myself thanks to your support we’ve moved more than half way toward my weekly $300 paycheck. 7 readers hitting DaTipJar below for $20 will finish the job for the week.

If you are inclined to do so hit DaTipJar below with my thanks.




The World Baseball Classic has begun and we’ve had our first upset as the Netherlands shut out South Korea 5-0 today, however the more interesting game was Uber Underdog Brazil facing two time champion Japan.

Brazil was not expected to even make the tournament. It took two upset wins against Panama in Panama to get that slot.

Manager Barry Larkin’s team managed to take a lead at 3-2 lead against Champion Japan in Japan and was only 5 out away from an incredible upset when they came back with three in the 8th to win the game 5-3.

It highlights the fact you have to get those 27 outs to win in baseball, but it also emphasises that if you are going to beat a Champion, you can’t make basic mistakes.

And that brings us to the Mass GOP straw poll.

Today the Massachusetts GOP had a straw poll in Danvers won by State Rep. Daniel Winslow.

Any GOP candidate facing any democrat in a statewide election is a serious underdog in Massachusetts, considering said candidate is going to face a sitting congressman either Ed Markey or Stephen Lynch that is doubly so.

That means you can’t make stupid or rookie mistakes if you want to win such a race.

So can someone tell me why the GOP is holding their straw poll at a YACHT CLUB?

“America sent a message to the Republican party in November of 2012. And the message is we have to be inclusive, we have to be relevant to women, we have to be relevant to millennials, we have to be relevant to new Americans,” Winslow said. “So I think that the symbolism of being in a country club and requiring people to pay to vote is absolutely the wrong message to send.”

Now Straw Polls are usually fundraising devices so that’s not all that unusual but the following line from the GOP simply floored me.

“Well if they want to pay to host the event, they’re more than welcome to,” said Massachusetts Republican Party Chair Kirsten Hughes. She said the event was not a fundraiser and said the $10 per ballot was to cover the cost of the event — such as staffing and refreshments.

Basic math says that the 193 voters paid $1930 for the event. It what does it say that the Mass GOP found it necessary to charge admission to cover a $2000 bill? Both candidates for GOP Chairman in January boasted of their fundraising skills and reaching out to voters. Nothing says I’m a killer fundraiser like having to grab $10 a head to hold a straw poll (apparently they decided against a meat raffle because my local Knights of Columbus council had one yesterday). When you are facing connected insiders like Lynch & Markey, you want your candidate to run as a regular guy.

I don’t know who told the mass GOP “Nothing says regular guy to the voters like the words ‘Yacht Club'” but whoever did should stuffing envelopes from now on.

It’s only the top of the first so there is plenty of time, but you are an underdog playing the champs, you don’t have a margin of error for more of this.

*****

Olimometer 2.52

This pay week has 5 hours to go and I am just under $200 shy.

10 people @ $20 gives me that gigantic $300 paycheck. Personally I think if the mass GOP invested $300 a week in the site they would have gotten better advice. Hold the event elsewhere, Find a donor to cover the cost and if you want to charge admission to make sure nobody stuffs the ballot box donate the money to the Jimmy Fund.

If that advice wasn’t worth $200 I’d like to know what is?