Two years ago when I had my road trip with Stacy McCain we hit the PA-10 race where Tom Mario was trying to win his first term in the house.

While in PA I met one of the most experienced political people I ever met Hughey (pronounced Huey) Woodring who accurately told us what was going to happen in the state that year.

This year I knew I wasn’t going to be able to hit PA so before I left the house I gave a call to Hughey to find out what the situation was down there, both for the Marino re-elect effort and for the state in general.

Hughey was surprised to hear from me, he started by telling me Tom Marino is looking very safe for re-election in his slightly redrawn 10th district. Real Clear Politics apparently agrees as they don’t even list PA-10 as a race on their radar.

This is significant, he is a freshman running for re-election in a presidential year in a state that Obama took the last tie, if after a hard-fought campaign in 2010 Marino is safe and sound in 2012 that means the 10th is looking pretty good for the GOP.

I asked about the presidential race, after all Paul Ryan had already visited the state and he told things look pretty promising for Romney, in fact he thinks Mitt is going to pull it off. I asked him if the lack of the voter ID law being enforced would hurt in that regard but he still thins Mitt is going to manage it.

Remember Hughey has been doing this longer than I’ve been alive, if he thinks Pennsylvania is in play you had better believe it’s in play.

And if it’s in play in 2012 WITHOUT the voter ID law to keep people honest can you imagine what will happen in 2014 & 16 when the “old-fashioned” tactics of the various city machines have a wrench in them?

Be afraid Democrats, be very afraid

(note this post will be cross posted as soon as my other site is back up)

Update: Main site is back up, I’ll be re-post this there later.

Update 2: Think Pennsylvania isn’t in play? Reuters disagrees

Ann Koberna, a Democratic activist and former school teacher in the Philadelphia suburb of Doylestown, did not need a poll or ads to see that support for Obama was eroding ahead of next Tuesday’s election.

She noticed it just after the first debate, on October 3, which boosted Romney’s national poll numbers after his strong performance. All of a sudden, she said, Romney-Ryan lawn signs started popping up in Doylestown and now they are all over the place.

Be afraid Democrats, be very afraid.

My latest for the Examiner is Tracking the Big Red Wave:

Last week in Ma-4 I talked to A Haitian immigrant who came 32 years ago indignant that people assumed she supported the president because she is black and talking of American opportunity , while her co-worker spoke of regret for her Obama vote of 2008 opting home this election cycle. I’ve heard this a lot, but is this a local trend or a national one?

This week I traveled 1200 miles through 5 states to find out:

It’s my experience that confident campaigns don’t fire people for wearing hats

I also neglected to mention my last examiner article Tea is stronger than hope and change in Boston feel free to check it out too.

Yeah it’s still 10 days to go but all my data points are looking in the same direction I think the Red Wave is on its way but as Hughey says, if you slack off it might not get here, so go out knock on some doors and make some calls STAT!

Never had a general instalanche before so rather than hitting the sack here is a summary of posts on my road trip with Stacy McCain. I should note the Massachusetts races were covered with McCain on his trip to Mass as we did daily road trips.

VA-11 Keith Fimian

Voices of the Voters Edward in Va-11

11:39 A.M Fairfax Va Va-11 (report from the Fimiam HQ)

Pa-10 Tom Marino

Voices of the people: Jason Fitzgerald and Hughey Woodring (If you watch only one of my videos make it this one.) UPDATE Bad link fixed
Williamsport PA 7:11 P.M Update: Talking to Jason Fitzgerald

NY-25 Ann Marie Buerkle

Ann Marie Buerkle talks to the press in Ny-25

Voices of the voters: Joyce at the Buerkle event
Ann Marie Buerkle Press conference and the Maffei Halloween Whoppers
Voices of the voters: John at the Buerkle event
Voices of the Candidates: Ann Marie Buerkle republican for congress Ny-25
Voices of the people: Joe at the Ann Marie Buerkle press conference

Ny-22 George Phillips

Jamesville NY 10:10 PM
Hancock NY 12:35 p.m.
New Paltz NY 9:55 a.m.

ma-4 Sean Bielat

Voices of the Candidates: Sean Bielat after the commercial shoot
Some shots from the Making of the new Sean Bielat TV ad
You’ve found that Scott Brown Feeling
Voices of the Voter: David Anderson
Voices of the Candidates Sean Bielat ma-4 interviewed with Robert Stacy McCain

Ma-1 Bill Gunn

Bill Gunn and Neal Heeren answer questions in Leominster

Live blog of the Bill Gunn event in Leominster

ma-3 Marty Lamb

Voices of the Candidates: Closing statements ma-3 Debate
Questions from the ma-3 Debate
Voices of the Candidates: Marty Lamb (r) ma-3 post debate
DaTechGuy’s Field Guide to Bloggers: Right Wing Granny
Voices of the Voters: Brian Hood
Voices of the voters: Tina Hood
Tonight’s Debate between Marty Lamb (R), Jim McGovern (D), Pat Barron (I)

Jeff Perry ma-10

Voices of the Voters: Jody
Voices of the Voters: Tom Savanti at the Perry HQ
Voices of the Candidates: Jeff Perry (R) ma-10
You’ve found that Scott Brown Feeling

There is absolutely no reason why we can’t win all of these seats if you give time and effort, we can’t do everything but all of us can do something!

And it goes without saying you should hit Stacy McCain’s site, just keep scrolling.

Update: And don’t miss Stacy’s latest on the Bielat/Frank race

Hughey Woodring and Jason Fitzgerald talk to me about the Tom Marino campaign and Pa in general.

The most important words said in this interview:

Me: What would you like to say to those people not only in this country but all across the country republicans and conservatives who are thinking: “It’s looking good and we can ease off a little?

Hughey Woodring: Get out and volunteer and get the word out!

Me: Is there any other way to win an election without working just right till the end?

Hughey: No!

Hughey Woodring advice about not getting complacent predates Glenn Reynolds, after all Hughey is old enough to be his blogfather

Update: Stacy McCain has an update with some good poll numbers for the district

Update 2: Here is an example of a Poll not as reliable

Anyone who believes Ann Marie Buerkle is down 12 in NY-25 likely thought that Tom Marino had no chance in Pa-10

Update 3: Instalanche, check out the links to all of my posts on the road trip here.

Had trouble finding the campaign office but lucky for me the we passed the local Sons of Italy lodge 2786

Marino HQ in Williamsport PA

and who do I run into but the candidates sister Mary Jo who directed us to the campaign HQ.

At the HQ I talked to Hughey Woodring the election chairman who had just done over 100 calls for the candidate tonight. He told me that the response was overwhelmingly favorable, even democrats who they called can’t seem to wait to vote republican this time to stop the spending and to repeal the Healthcare Bill.

Hughey Woodring at Marino HQ

This is consistent with what I’ve been hearing again and again from tea party meetings from the Sean Bielat race and all over.

If I’m Tom Marino I’m feeling pretty good about the Pa-10 race, but as Glenn Reynolds says: Don’t get Cocky.

His campaign MGR Tom Communication director Jason Fitzgerald should be here by 8:30 in a few minutes I’ll update you then.

Update : Fitzgerald hasn’t arrived yet but Stacy’s post is up and I would strongly suggest that anyone wanting to know how to run an election contact Hughey Woodring STAT! That guy knows his stuff!

Jason goes over the district with Stacy

Update 2: Talking to Mr. Fitzgerald, says the race will be won in Lycoming county which made the difference in the three way primary that Tom Won bigtime. He believes that this race came in under the radar.

Looking at the overall situation in several races

You mean to say that there are races the MSM was ignoring that might finish differently than they think, who’s been saying that about Massachusetts for a bit?

Update 3: Just talked to the county chairman Bob Brobson he says the Marino race in pa-10 and the Senate and governer’s races are looking good but we have an awful lot more work to do. He has been taking Hughey Woodring advice.