Yesterday I commented on Nikki Tsongas’ support for Obamacare and how it might be a problem in Fitchburg. I’ve been taking a closer look at the figures and frankly this could be a bigger problem than anyone realizes the Congresswoman.
Consider: In January 2010 the special election was in effect a referendum on Obamacare. Scott Brown campaigned against it and vowed to be the 41st vote to block it.
Brown won that race (the first Senate victory for a member of the GOP since the 1972 Nixon Landslide) by five points statewide. The totals were as follows:
Brown 51.8% 1,168,178
Coakley 47.1% 1,060,861
Kennedy 1% 22,388
Ok that’s actually 4.7% unrounded, not much of a margin.
But in the cities and town that now constitute the Massachusetts 3rd district the margin was more impressive:
Brown 57% 129521
Coakley 42% 95820
That’s a 15 point difference in an election that Brown won by less than 5 points overall. And if you look at the top ten cities in the district based on votes cast in 2010 it gets worse for the left…
Brown 58% 76097
Coakley 41% 54018
Kennedy 1% 1284
Larger cities are usually Democrat strongholds. In the state overall Coakley won 9 out of the 10 largest cities. Unfortunately for the left none of those cities are in this district. In this district only Lawrence went against Brown (by a 2-1 margin). Brown won the other 9 largest cities in the district and actually did a point better than the district overall.
In short in an election all about Obamacare Scott Brown dominated the vote in what is now the Massachusetts 3rd District and that same Scott Brown is going to be on the ballot this fall.
“But DaTechGuy” you argue, “Nikki Tsongas has won re-election right along without trouble and this time President Obama will be on the ticket too!”
I’m glad you brought that up. Let’s consider four important points:
1. Thanks but no Thanks Mr. President: Let’s remember that President Obama made it a point to campaign with Martha Coakley in Boston just before the election and it didn’t help her win a seat that the Democrats won since 1978. There is a reason why Ohio union leaders kept Obama out of the state during their special election.
2. A Done Deal: In fall 2010 Obamacare was already passed. A vote for Nikki Tsongas would have no bearing on if Obamacare remained the law of the land or no. In 2012 that isn’t going to be the case.
3. The Obama “Recovery”: Let me quote a post you might have read a few days ago.
What the public IS paying attention to every day is their own lives. Unfortunately for Mr. Hope and change and his re-election team, the worst economy since before World War 2 has been the daily reality of those lives since he has been elected.
You can spin this, you can rationalize this, you can give excuses for this, but you can’t pretend this isn’t true.
And remember there is absolutely no daylight between Nikki Tsongas and Barack Obama.
4. My name is Weaver/Golnik & I’m with Scott Brown:
Just as there is no daylight between Nikki Tsongas and Barack Obama there is no daylight between either Jon Golnik or Tom Weaver and Scott Brown on Obamacare. The ads just write themselves. Do you want to be with Scott Brown & Tom Weaver/Jon Golnik or Barack Obama & Nikki Tsongas?
MA-3 may not be on a lot of people’s maps right now, but after looking at these figures, paybe the GOP might decide to pump in even more than the 2.2 mil into TV ads around here.
Be afraid Democrats, be VERY afraid!
The DaTechGuy Fundraiser lumbers on. The primary goal is $3000 and we haven’t hit the first grand yet, but with a race that might be closer than people think in Ma-3 it is going to be worth your time and money to kick in to make sure it’s covered. Any help is appreciated. For details click here for the progress check the thermometer to the right and to kick in hit DaTipJar”.