Feldman: Ah yes, did you bring the um … the specimen of your um … and so on, and so on?
Martin: Yes I did. It’s in the car. [pause] There’s rather a lot.
Feldman: Good, good.
Martin: Do you really need twelve gallons?
Feldman: No, no, not really.
Martin: Do you test it?
Martin: Well, why do you want it?
Feldman: Well, we do it to make sure that you’re serious about wanting insurance
Monty Python’s Flying Circus. Royal Episode 13 1970
Last night on the way home from being the only temp who showed up for work I was listening to yet another breathless scoop about how things are falling apart in Patriots land and how the Jimmy G trade is the Patriot apocalypse
This is no surprise lately I’ve been listening to a lot of sports radio on my way to and from work and even without the new story today that’s all I’ve heard for weeks. Brady in decline, Garoppolo the new king. I’m rapidly reaching the limits of my patience with the people who are screaming bloody murder both over Jimmy Garoppolo success in San Francisco.
What Jimmy Garoppolo has done in his first four starts with the San Francisco 49ers after coming over via trade from the New England Patriots before the deadline is unprecedented. Quarterbacks don’t simply switch teams midseason and then light the world on fire. Through that lens, Garoppolo has no equal.
and the so called “decline” of Tom Brady. It’s time to tackle it.
There are two basic lines of complaints, let’s tackle them in order
#1 “We should have traded Tom Brady and kept Jimmy G”!
This argument has but a single basis, but it’s a strong one. Tom Brady is a 40 year old QB and even though he is clearly the greatest QB of all time (youtube arguments not withstanding) if not the greatest football player of all time it is inevitable that either age will finally catch up with him or he will decide that he just doesn’t want to do this anymore. After all the anger over being underestimated or disrespected can only drive a person for so long.
And they do have a point here, based on this page at statisca.com they can argue that Tom Brady is playing on borrowed time since he has already played:
OVER 5 x as many seasons as the average NFL player (5.45)
OVER 4 x as many seasons as the avg QB (4.09)
3 x as many season as the avg rookie who makes an opening day Roster (2000)
OVER 2 x as many seasons as the avg player with 3 pension credited seasons (2.53)
53% longer than players with at least once pro bowl selection
and in what must be his favorite stat
Nearly TWICE as long as the average 1st round pick (1.93) next year it will be over double
On the other hand as he has already blown every single longevity stat out of the water we’ve already established that these state are meaningless when it comes to Brady. There is no reason to believe he can’t continue for as many as two or three more years he continues to move these stats up.
However while the “Shouda traded Brady” crowd are happy to talk about those stats in terms of borrowed time, nobody is talking about how these same Stats might apply to Jimmy Garoppolo.
Garoppolo has already played longer in the NFL player than the average player (3.3 years)
Garoppolo has already played over 90% as long as the average NFL quarterback (4.4 years)
Garoppolo has already played 67% as long as the average NFL player who makes an opening day roster in their rookie season (2014) (6 yrs)
Garoppolo has already played over 56% as long as the average NFL player with 3 pension credited seasons (7.1)
Garoppolo despite being a 2nd round pick as already played over 43% as long as the average 1st round pick (9.3)
And presuming Garoppolo makes the pro-bowl next year he will have played 42% as long as the average pro-bowl player. (11.7)
So unless you think that Brady will retire after this year or the next based on current averages unless you have some kind of magic 8 ball into the future you have no reason to believe that Jimmy Garoppolo will outlast Tom Brady by enough years to make it worth while.
They further point to the last five weeks claiming and this ESPN report that this is the beginning of the end for either Belechick or Brady
Let me remind everyone that Brady in December went 4-1 over those last five game in a situation where going 3-2 would have been the difference between the 1st seed or the second seed and anything worse might have been the difference between having a 1st round bye and not, and did so at the end of a season where he’s taken a bunch of hits but the leading contender for MVP
Jimmy G’s 5-0 run while very impressive came in games where the difference between going 5-0 & 0-5 was the difference between finishing last in their division, or finishing last in their division. Before I start crying over having Tom Brady as my QB in 2018 I’d like to see Jimmy and the 49ers win some meaningful games next year against Seattle, Arizona and LA when there is something on the line for both teams.
2. We only got a 2nd round pick. We didn’t get proper value for him.
This argument looks at the success of Jimmy Garoppolo as he takes an inferior team and leads it to victories not only against multiple teams better than his, but defeating playoff bound/caliber teams and it drives people crazy. This take is typical:
With a second-round pick that keeps dropping in value with every win, the 49ers essentially drafted a more polished, experienced version of any passer available in this year’s draft class. They got a a 26-year-old veteran who spent more than three years learning from arguably the best quarterback in NFL history, all the while waiting for his time to shine.
The 49ers are finally giving Garoppolo that opportunity, and the early returns suggest they may have made a franchise-altering decision that could be ushering in a new era for one of the most storied teams in league history.
It’s too early to crown Garoppolo the next Joe Montana or Steve Young, but it’s not hyperbole to say the 49ers may have already won the 2018 NFL draft by spending a Day 2 pick on a polished veteran with all the physical and mental tools to transform their fortunes seemingly overnight.
We had this guy who is obviously great and gave him away for a 2nd round pick. How badly did we get jobbed?
This argument has three holes that I will handle from the smallest to the largest.
- Yes we only got a 2nd round pick but not only will that be a higher level pick than the one that produced Jimmy G in the first place and there is no reason why a team wise enough to draft Mr. G will not be wise enough to select a QB with similar potential
- It’s a trade to a team outside our conference meaning that the Patriots will only have to face Mr. G once every four years max (or in a Superbowl) as opposed to at LEAST once every 3 years or more and have the possibility of having to go through a Jimmy G led team to make a superbowl. It Mr. Garoppolo is as good as the critics think he is (and it’s very possible he is) then it’s worth getting a later pick to keep Mr. Garoppolo out of our conference.
- Football is a sport were everyone is a single play away from being finished permanently. Yes it’s likely that we might have gotten a 1st round pick perhaps even a top 3-5 pick for Jimmy G before game one. But for the price of that drop of from a top 5 pick to a top 40 pick the Patriots had eight weeks of insurance if Tom Brady had to be replaced either due to injury or father time finally screaming “enough”. If Brady had been injured in the 1st 8 weeks and Jimmy G had been traded the same fans and sportswriters screaming about how the pats got jobbed would be talking about how the Patriots threw away their Superbowl chances for 2017.
All of these are reasons why Pats fans have no business complaining about the Jimmy G trade. let me add on one more.
No Dynasty lasts forever, and even if this sensational ESPN story that nobody seems to be able to handle has any merit
As Brady and Belichick left the field, bundled up in the cold, the only thing clear was that the beginning of the end started a long time ago, masked by success and the joy and pain of the rise, leaving both men this year’s playoffs and their collective will to stave off the fall.
Your New England Patriots are two wins away from the 8th Superbowl appearance in 16 years and three wins away from their sixth superbowl victory in 17 years and enter this situation being led by not only the best Quarterback and the most experienced superbowl quarterback of all time, but with said QB being the #1 or #2 candidate for league MVP.
And you’re whining about the fact that next year you’ll be starting the Quarterback that made this possible AND have a top 40 draft pick vs one who has never played an all or nothing game with something meaningful on the line without said pick?
Closing thought. The biggest threat to turning Tom Brady numbers is him waking up one day and saying: “I’ve got nothing left to prove.” Conversely there is nothing that drives Tom Brady like disrespect from others.
I’d like to thank ESPN, WEEI and every Sports outlet for pushing this story as it is likely to not only motivate him in this years playoffs, but for 2018 and perhaps many seasons to come.
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