via ebay

Feldman: Ah yes, did you bring the um … the specimen of your um … and so on, and so on?
Martin: Yes I did. It’s in the car. [pause] There’s rather a lot.
Feldman: Good, good.
Martin: Do you really need twelve gallons?
Feldman: No, no, not really.
Martin: Do you test it?
Feldman: No.
Martin: Well, why do you want it?
Feldman: Well, we do it to make sure that you’re serious about wanting insurance

Monty Python’s Flying Circus. Royal Episode 13 1970

Last night on the way home from being the only temp who showed up for work I was listening to yet another breathless scoop about how things are falling apart in Patriots land and how the Jimmy G trade is the Patriot apocalypse

This is no surprise lately I’ve been listening to a lot of sports radio on my way to and from work and even without the new story today that’s all I’ve heard for weeks.  Brady in decline, Garoppolo the new king.  I’m rapidly reaching the limits of my patience with the people who are screaming bloody murder both over Jimmy Garoppolo success in San Francisco.

What Jimmy Garoppolo has done in his first four starts with the San Francisco 49ers after coming over via trade from the New England Patriots before the deadline is unprecedented. Quarterbacks don’t simply switch teams midseason and then light the world on fire. Through that lens, Garoppolo has no equal.

and the so called “decline” of Tom Brady.  It’s time to tackle it.

There are two basic lines of complaints, let’s tackle them in order

#1  “We should have traded Tom Brady and kept Jimmy G”!

This argument has but a single basis, but it’s a strong one. Tom Brady is a 40 year old QB and even though he is clearly the greatest QB of all time (youtube arguments not withstanding) if not the greatest football player of all time it is inevitable that either age will finally catch up with him or he will decide that he just doesn’t want to do this anymore. After all the anger over being underestimated or disrespected can only drive a person for so long.

And they do have a point here, based on this page at statisca.com they can argue that Tom Brady is playing on borrowed time since he has already played:

OVER 5 x as many seasons as the average NFL player (5.45)
OVER 4 x as many seasons as the avg QB (4.09)
3 x as many season as the avg rookie who makes an opening day Roster (2000)
OVER 2 x as many seasons as the avg player with 3 pension credited seasons (2.53)
53% longer than players with at least once pro bowl selection

and in what must be his favorite stat

Nearly TWICE as long as the average 1st round pick (1.93) next year it will be over double

On the other hand as he has already blown every single longevity stat out of the water we’ve already established that these state are meaningless when it comes to Brady.  There is no reason to believe he can’t continue for as many as two or three more years he continues to move these stats up.

However while the “Shouda traded Brady” crowd are happy to talk about those stats in terms of borrowed time, nobody is talking about how these same Stats might apply to Jimmy Garoppolo.

Garoppolo has already played longer in the NFL player than the average player (3.3 years)
Garoppolo has already played over 90% as long as the average NFL quarterback (4.4 years)
Garoppolo has already played 67% as long as the average NFL player who makes an opening day roster in their rookie season (2014) (6 yrs)
Garoppolo has already played over 56% as long as the average NFL player with 3 pension credited seasons (7.1)
Garoppolo despite being a 2nd round pick as already played over 43% as long as the average 1st round pick (9.3)

And presuming Garoppolo makes the pro-bowl next year he will have played 42% as long as the average pro-bowl player. (11.7)

So unless you think that Brady will retire after this year or the next based on current averages unless you have some kind of magic 8 ball into the future you have no reason to believe that Jimmy Garoppolo will outlast Tom Brady by enough years to make it worth while.

They further point to the last five weeks claiming and this ESPN report that this is the beginning of the end for either Belechick or Brady

Let me remind everyone that Brady in December went 4-1 over those last five game in a situation where going 3-2 would have been the difference between the 1st seed or the second seed and anything worse might have been the difference between having a 1st round bye and not, and did so at the end of a season where he’s taken a bunch of hits but the leading contender for MVP

Jimmy G’s 5-0 run while very impressive came in games where the difference between going 5-0 & 0-5 was the difference between finishing last in their division, or finishing last in their division. Before I start crying over having Tom Brady as my QB in 2018 I’d like to see Jimmy and the 49ers win some meaningful games next year against Seattle, Arizona and LA when there is something on the line for both teams.

2.  We only got a 2nd round pick.  We didn’t get proper value for him.

This argument looks at the success of Jimmy Garoppolo as he takes  an inferior team and leads it to victories not only against multiple teams better than his, but defeating playoff bound/caliber teams and it drives people crazy. This take is typical:

With a second-round pick that keeps dropping in value with every win, the 49ers essentially drafted a more polished, experienced version of any passer available in this year’s draft class. They got a a 26-year-old veteran who spent more than three years learning from arguably the best quarterback in NFL history, all the while waiting for his time to shine.

The 49ers are finally giving Garoppolo that opportunity, and the early returns suggest they may have made a franchise-altering decision that could be ushering in a new era for one of the most storied teams in league history.

It’s too early to crown Garoppolo the next Joe Montana or Steve Young, but it’s not hyperbole to say the 49ers may have already won the 2018 NFL draft by spending a Day 2 pick on a polished veteran with all the physical and mental tools to transform their fortunes seemingly overnight.

We had this guy who is obviously great and gave him away for a 2nd round pick.  How badly did we get jobbed?

This argument has three holes that I will handle from the smallest to the largest.

  1.  Yes we only got a 2nd round pick but not only will that be a higher level pick than the one that produced Jimmy G in the first place and there is no reason why a team wise enough to draft Mr. G will not be wise enough to select a QB with similar potential
  2.  It’s  a trade to a team outside our conference meaning that the Patriots will only have to face Mr. G once every four years max (or in a Superbowl) as opposed to at LEAST once every 3 years or more and have the possibility of having to go through a Jimmy G led team to make a superbowl.  It Mr. Garoppolo is as good as the critics think he is (and it’s very possible he is) then it’s  worth getting a later pick to keep Mr. Garoppolo out of our conference.
  3. Football is a sport were everyone is a single play away from being finished permanently.  Yes it’s likely that we might have gotten a 1st round pick perhaps even a top 3-5 pick for Jimmy G before game one.  But for the price of that drop of from a top 5 pick to a top 40 pick the Patriots had eight weeks of insurance if Tom Brady had to be replaced either due to injury or father time finally screaming “enough”.  If Brady had been injured in the 1st 8 weeks and Jimmy G had been traded the same fans and sportswriters screaming about how the pats got jobbed would be talking about how the Patriots threw away their Superbowl chances for 2017.

All of these are reasons why Pats fans have no business complaining about the Jimmy G trade. let me add on one more.

No Dynasty lasts forever, and even if this sensational ESPN story that nobody seems to be able to handle has any merit

As Brady and Belichick left the field, bundled up in the cold, the only thing clear was that the beginning of the end started a long time ago, masked by success and the joy and pain of the rise, leaving both men this year’s playoffs and their collective will to stave off the fall.

Your New England Patriots are two wins away from the 8th Superbowl appearance in 16 years and three wins away from their sixth superbowl victory in 17 years and enter this situation being led by not only the best Quarterback and the most experienced superbowl quarterback of all time, but with said QB being the #1 or #2 candidate for league MVP.

And you’re whining about the fact that next year you’ll be starting the Quarterback that made this possible AND have a top 40 draft pick vs one who has never played an all or nothing game with something meaningful on the line without said pick?

Seriously?

Closing thought. The biggest threat to turning Tom Brady numbers is him waking up one day and saying: “I’ve got nothing left to prove.” Conversely there is nothing that drives Tom Brady like disrespect from others.

I’d like to thank ESPN, WEEI and every Sports outlet for pushing this story as it is likely to not only motivate him in this years playoffs, but for 2018 and perhaps many seasons to come.



If you’d like to continue to support independent journalism in 2018, please consider hitting DaTipJar here.



Consider subscribing. If we can get 92 more subscribers at $20 a month I can do this full time without worry.


Choose a Subscription level


Finally might I suggest my book  Hail Mary the Perfect Protestant (and Catholic) Prayer makes an excellent Gift for the person of faith after all it’s still the 12th day of Christmas.

The small vine with Vinnie’s Grapes

Driven by hunger, a fox tried to reach some grapes hanging high on the vine but was unable to, although he leaped with all his strength. As he went away, the fox remarked ‘Oh, you aren’t even ripe yet! I don’t need any sour grapes.’

The Fox and the Grapes Via Wikipedia

John Nolte, one of the treasure of Breitbart tells us that there is a sudden shift in the land of socially conscious sportscaster Stephen A Smith:

Friday, ESPN “First Take” co-host Stephen A. Smith said he was “tired” of the national anthem protests and linking of arms in unity, adding he is ready to “get back to football.”

What? This can’t be, we’ve been told right along by guys like Smith that the Kaepernick protests not only were important but that it was disgraceful that fewer people in the NFL were taking part. What could possibly be his explanation for this sudden transformation?

Smith reasoned that Colin Kaepernick’s initial protest has been “hijacked” and the message has been “lost” because the protests are now anti-President Donald Trump, which he said just causes more “division.”

Chad Ochocinco is saying the same

Former Cincinnati Bengals star wide receiver Chad “Ochocinco” Johnson said in an interview with TMZ Sports that he believes the national anthem protests in the NFL are now “politically whitewashed” and have lost their initial meaning,

Vice sports is saying the same:

It’s heartbreaking to say, but this past Sunday shows that brain-dead argument perpetrated by brain-dead hucksters and embraced by brain-dead people is serving its purpose, by deflecting attention away from the protest’s original meaning.

Oddly this is a sentiment that I’ve heard a lot of WEEI from people who were all pro Kaepernick lately on my evening drive. The protests have jumped the shark, they’ve been hijacked etc etc etc.

So the question on the floor is this: why are we suddenly seeing this change in the narrative from the sporting left?

The answer is simple, despite what you might hear from Esquire Trump has won this cultural battle big time.

The NFL is battling to repair its tarnished image and to win back a chunk of the fan base that they’ve forfeited, and the NBA, terrified of mimicking the NFL’s dropping popularity has made it clear that there will be no kneeling allowed.

And thanks to the left turning this into a racial issue we are going to have the pleasure of seeing the 2018 Democrats defending disrespecting the flag to avoid a primary challenge in red states.

Trump has won but our friends on the left can’t admit that, so instead we have the face-saving message, oh the protests have been hijacked message.

If they want to play this game, that’s fine, the political result will be exactly the same and both the NFL and the NBA have learned a valuable lesson about their customer bases that they won’t soon forget.


If you like what you’ve seen here and want to support independent journalism please hit DaTipJar below.




Please consider subscribing, Not only does that get you my weekly podcast emailed to you before it appears either on the site or at the 405media which graciously carries it on a weekly basis but if you subscribe at any level I will send you an autographed copy of my new book from Imholt Press: Hail Mary the Perfect Protestant (and Catholic) Prayer


Choose a Subscription level



(or you can buy one here)

Buried in all the news about the NFL is a paragraph in this observer piece by Ashe Snow that perfectly encapsulates what the media don’t get about Donald Trump and twitter

Tweets mean nothing. It takes no effort at all to send one. Acting like Trump actually spent all day Monday caring about the NFL because of what he tweeted is absurd. Does the media really think all he does is tweet? It sure seems like it. They would rather write dozens of articles about every single one of the president’s tweets than look into what he’s actually doing.

That’s the real secret about Donald Trump and twitter, he understand the media mind set, he knows that with just a few tweets he can send them down a rabbit hole all day while he gets work done, or to push them in a direction they don’t want to go, or get the heat off of a project that he is dealing with or lobbying for.

A great example of this has been the reactions on WEEI on Trump that I hear when I drive in and go home from work. For some reason the libs on the station think that Trump is obsessed with the NFL, the reality is that his line at the rally last monday was a throw away applause line and once he saw the reaction it only took a few tweets to get them and the left where he wanted. I doubt he spent more than 3-4 minutes a day on it, but the media was fully committed and while they were congratulating themselves over the NFL’s “victory” over Trump and taking knees in congress Trump was getting things done in Puerto Rico without worrying about the media butting in.

Politico reported, “Rossello and other officials praised the federal government for planning its response in detail before the storm hit, a contrast with what Puerto Rico has long seen as the neglect of 3.4 million Americans living in a territory without a vote in Congress or the electoral college.”

There is only one issue I have with the piece, and that’s this line:

I’m not defending Trump’s tweets. I wish he’d stop.

Snow is dead wrong there. Trump’s tweets are a valuable weapon against the left. Via twitter he gets his message out without them forcing them to react to him rather than the other way around and putting them into battles they don’t want to fight and baiting them into positions they can’t defend. Why do you think they keep attacking his tweets every chance they get?

Tweet away Mr. President, Tweet Away.