Yesterday demonstrates why Rick Santorum not Mitt Romney should be the GOP nominee

by Datechguy | March 7th, 2012

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Yesterday demonstrates why Rick Santorum not Mitt Romney should be the GOP nominee

That might sound counter intu­itive but look­ing at the results of last night it is the log­i­cal con­clu­sion and the expla­na­tion is pretty simple:

Yes­ter­day Mitt Rom­ney won five states, maybe six. He did this with a pow­er­ful orga­ni­za­tion, the full weight of the GOP estab­lish­ment behind him and with a war chest that allowed him to out­spend Rick San­to­rum in a must win state 16 – 1 (41 exclud­ing super­pac money)

Rick San­to­rum won 3 states, and came in at least 2nd in the field of four in every state except Ver­mont. He has nowhere near the money of Mitt Rom­ney, doesn’t have the back­ing of the party elites and doesn’t have any­thing resem­bling a national organization.

Now lets look at the gen­eral elec­tion what will be dif­fer­ent for each candidate:

If Mitt Rom­ney is the nom­i­nee every­thing changes for the worse for him

Mitt Rom­ney will still have an orga­ni­za­tion, but instead of being vastly supe­rior it will be infe­rior to Obama.

He will still have the GOP party appa­ra­tus behind him, but he’ll not only face an oppo­nent with the party appa­ra­tus unlike in Iowa and Maine that party won’t be in a posi­tion to make “judge­ment calls” on cau­cus counts or re-​counts.

It means he will have to deal, for the first time, the MSM hit­ting him as “extrem­ist” his reli­gion will be hit as “extreme” and he will have the full “Racist, sex­ist, homo­phobe” meme thrown both at him and at his Mor­mon reli­gion and the MSM will do it with­out fear or worry.

And it goes with­out say­ing Mitt Rom­ney won’t have the abil­ity to out­spend Obama, in fact every indi­ca­tion is he will be out­spent by Obama.

In other words, Rom­ney will have to win with­out the advan­tages that made his cur­rent vic­to­ries possible.

If Rick San­to­rum is the nom­i­nee, every­thing changes for him, but for the better.

Sud­denly as the nom­i­nee he will have orga­ni­za­tion behind him, an orga­ni­za­tion bet­ter than he has had at any time dur­ing this cam­paign able to do things that he could not do before.

Sud­denly he will have the full power of a party, the GOP behind him. That means he will have party sur­ro­gates on every net­work mak­ing the case for his elec­tion in every city, state and county of the coun­try. It means that in there will be national lawyers ready to pounce if the left tries any­thing untoward.

It means that when the MSM attacks his reli­gion, his beliefs and tries to paint him as some kind of extrem­ist they will have to do it with care. Obama will need every vote he can man­age in 2012 and if they go too heavy on hit­ting the Catholic Church they risk upset­ting a swing demo­graphic in swing states.

Finally it will mean money, more money that he has had at any time dur­ing this cam­paign, money to do the things that sim­ply weren’t pos­si­ble for him to do on a national level at any time before. It means instead of a shoe­string cam­paign it will be a solid cam­paign able to make the best pos­si­ble case against a pow­er­ful opponent.

Bot­tom line, Rom­ney is at the absolute peak of his elec­toral power right now, from the moment he gets the nom­i­na­tion he will be on a slid­ing scale he will have to run as an under­dog. As demon­strated against John McCain, he didn’t do well in that situation.

Rick San­to­rum how­ever is nowhere near the peak of his strength, from the moment he gets the nom­i­na­tion he will be work­ing on a grow­ing scale with every advan­tage he didn’t have before. He’d still be the under­dog vs Obama, but has a lot of expe­ri­ence in being the under­dog. Ask the folks in Min­nesota, Col­orado or Iowa if San­to­rum can win elec­tion as an underdog.

The best chance to win in 2012 is Rick San­to­rum and the GOP doesn’t have a lot of time to fig­ure this out.

Update: The results in Mis­sis­sippi and Alabama makes this even more true.

That might sound counter intuitive but looking at the results of last night it is the logical conclusion and the explanation is pretty simple:

Yesterday Mitt Romney won five states, maybe six. He did this with a powerful organization, the full weight of the GOP establishment behind him and with a war chest that allowed him to outspend Rick Santorum in a must win state 16-1 (4-1 excluding superpac money)

Rick Santorum won 3 states, and came in at least 2nd in the field of four in every state except Vermont. He has nowhere near the money of Mitt Romney, doesn’t have the backing of the party elites and doesn’t have anything resembling a national organization.

Now lets look at the general election what will be different for each candidate:

If Mitt Romney is the nominee everything changes for the worse for him

Mitt Romney will still have an organization, but instead of being vastly superior it will be inferior to Obama.

He will still have the GOP party apparatus behind him, but he’ll not only face an opponent with the party apparatus unlike in Iowa and Maine that party won’t be in a position to make “judgement calls” on caucus counts or re-counts.

It means he will have to deal, for the first time, the MSM hitting him as “extremist” his religion will be hit as “extreme” and he will have the full “Racist, sexist, homophobe” meme thrown both at him and at his Mormon religion and the MSM will do it without fear or worry.

And it goes without saying Mitt Romney won’t have the ability to outspend Obama, in fact every indication is he will be outspent by Obama.

In other words, Romney will have to win without the advantages that made his current victories possible.

If Rick Santorum is the nominee, everything changes for him, but for the better.

Suddenly as the nominee he will have organization behind him, an organization better than he has had at any time during this campaign able to do things that he could not do before.

Suddenly he will have the full power of a party, the GOP behind him. That means he will have party surrogates on every network making the case for his election in every city, state and county of the country. It means that in there will be national lawyers ready to pounce if the left tries anything untoward.

It means that when the MSM attacks his religion, his beliefs and tries to paint him as some kind of extremist they will have to do it with care. Obama will need every vote he can manage in 2012 and if they go too heavy on hitting the Catholic Church they risk upsetting a swing demographic in swing states.

Finally it will mean money, more money that he has had at any time during this campaign, money to do the things that simply weren’t possible for him to do on a national level at any time before. It means instead of a shoestring campaign it will be a solid campaign able to make the best possible case against a powerful opponent.

Bottom line, Romney is at the absolute peak of his electoral power right now, from the moment he gets the nomination he will be on a sliding scale he will have to run as an underdog. As demonstrated against John McCain, he didn’t do well in that situation.

Rick Santorum however is nowhere near the peak of his strength, from the moment he gets the nomination he will be working on a growing scale with every advantage he didn’t have before. He’d still be the underdog vs Obama, but has a lot of experience in being the underdog. Ask the folks in Minnesota, Colorado or Iowa if Santorum can win election as an underdog.

The best chance to win in 2012 is Rick Santorum and the GOP doesn’t have a lot of time to figure this out.

Update: The results in Mississippi and Alabama makes this even more true.

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