My advice to Scott Brown

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My advice to Scott Brown

Yes­ter­day I put up a post say­ing I believed the WBUR poll show­ing For­mer Obama Admin­is­tra­tion Offi­cial Eliz­a­beth War­ren lead­ing over the Her­ald poll show­ing Sen­a­tor Scott Brown ahead, I men­tioned in pass­ing anec­do­tal evi­dence that sup­ported my data based con­clu­sions but didn’t detail it. If you were won­der­ing what I saw that favors For­mer Obama Admin­is­tra­tion Offi­cial Eliz­a­beth War­ren, won­der no more!

1. Vis­i­bil­ity:

Two months ago you couldn’t find a house with a sign for For­mer Obama Admin­is­tra­tion Offi­cial Eliz­a­beth War­ren sign in my dri­ving area with a mag­ni­fy­ing glass, today they are every­where I go and not just on open land but at pri­vate houses. Sig­nage doesn’t win elec­tions as Joe Solomito dis­cov­ered last year but a total lack of sig­nage doesn’t help.

2. The Silent Woman:

For­mer Obama Admin­is­tra­tion Offi­cial Eliz­a­beth War­ren has shifted her TV ads. Instead of her talk­ing you have other peo­ple talk­ing for her. That helps, When she talks you instantly think “Elit­ist” (unlike say Stacy McCain) Hav­ing reg­u­lar peo­ple talk for her instead hides who she is and that’s smart.

3. The Brown Pivot:

Sen­a­tor Scott Brown’s TV ad have shifted a bit, he was doing great with the TV ads in the truck and with Democ­rats talk­ing about why they sup­port Brown but three ads in par­tic­u­lar don’t help;

a. The “Good Job” ad:

<iframe width=“440” height=“275” src=“http://www.youtube.com/embed/2dlDrSVrIio” frameborder=“0” allow­fullscreen>

This is one of the “Truck” ads, for most of the at it works, talk­ing about how he opposed mem­bers of con­gress using inside info for stock deals but the bit with Obama telling him “Good Job” doesn’t play as well as he might think. It is no coin­ci­dence that Obama vis­ited the week­end before his elec­tion vic­tory in 2010

b. The “I’m pro-​choice” ad:

<iframe width=“440” height=“275” src=“http://www.youtube.com/embed/5kUdnLx5n5Y” frameborder=“0” allowfullscreen>

There are a lot A LOT of peo­ple who are in the GOP strictly over Abor­tion. While they under­stand that Brown is not with them (and War­ren is worse) they don’t need to be reminded on the air. Even worse the tone of the ads sug­gest that if you don’t sup­port Abor­tion you are not for women. That is an insult to the ladies who fight tire­lessly against the mur­der of unborn life. Take that first 5 sec­onds off that ad and it would work. For myself this ads and his appeal to the GOP to drop the abor­tion plank is why although I’ve vot­ing Brown and will urge oth­ers to do so, I can’t put his sign in my yard.

c. The “Eliz­a­beth War­ren” is lying ad:

As a rule you don’t put up an ad like this unless you are wor­ried and you cer­tainly don’t appear in that ad your­self. You have a woman voice over the ad or have either your wife or one of your daugh­ters do the TV ad but NOT YOU. A man who com­plains that a woman is pick­ing on him becomes the butt of jokes for guys and turns off women no mat­ter what any met­ro­sex­u­als tell you otherwise.

Now the debates will help because it is impos­si­ble for For­mer Obama Admin­is­tra­tion Offi­cial Eliz­a­beth War­ren to not speak for her­self there but if you are play­ing duck dodge and hide it won’t wash. Never for­get this rule: Never try to out lib­eral a lib­eral it won’t win you a sin­gle vote among actual lib­er­als and it just turns off con­ser­v­a­tives & independents.

You are an appeal­ing can­di­date and a pretty good sen­a­tor, peo­ple like you, I like you. Just be your­self and say what you’ve done and what you believe. Be proac­tive not reac­tive and you will win, be reac­tive and you give your oppo­nent an open­ing she doesn’t deserve.

Yesterday I put up a post saying I believed the WBUR poll showing Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren leading over the Herald poll showing Senator Scott Brown ahead, I mentioned in passing anecdotal evidence that supported my data based conclusions but didn’t detail it. If you were wondering what I saw that favors Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren, wonder no more!

1. Visibility:

Two months ago you couldn’t find a house with a sign for Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren sign in my driving area with a magnifying glass, today they are everywhere I go and not just on open land but at private houses. Signage doesn’t win elections as Joe Solomito discovered last year but a total lack of signage doesn’t help.

2. The Silent Woman:

Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren has shifted her TV ads. Instead of her talking you have other people talking for her. That helps, When she talks you instantly think “Elitist” (unlike say Stacy McCain) Having regular people talk for her instead hides who she is and that’s smart.

3. The Brown Pivot:

Senator Scott Brown’s TV ad have shifted a bit, he was doing great with the TV ads in the truck and with Democrats talking about why they support Brown but three ads in particular don’t help;

a. The “Good Job” ad:

<iframe width=”440″ height=”275″ src=”http://www.youtube.com/embed/2dlDrSVrIio” frameborder=”0″ allowfullscreen>

This is one of the “Truck” ads, for most of the at it works, talking about how he opposed members of congress using inside info for stock deals but the bit with Obama telling him “Good Job” doesn’t play as well as he might think. It is no coincidence that Obama visited the weekend before his election victory in 2010

b. The “I’m pro-choice” ad:

<iframe width=”440″ height=”275″ src=”http://www.youtube.com/embed/5kUdnLx5n5Y” frameborder=”0″ allowfullscreen>

There are a lot A LOT of people who are in the GOP strictly over Abortion. While they understand that Brown is not with them (and Warren is worse) they don’t need to be reminded on the air.   Even worse the tone of the ads suggest that if you don’t support Abortion you are not for women.  That is an insult to the ladies who fight tirelessly against the murder of unborn life.  Take that first 5 seconds off that ad and it would work. For myself this ads and his appeal to the GOP to drop the abortion plank is why although I’ve voting Brown and will urge others to do so, I can’t put his sign in my yard.

c. The “Elizabeth Warren” is lying ad:

As a rule you don’t put up an ad like this unless you are worried and you certainly don’t appear in that ad yourself. You have a woman voice over the ad or have either your wife or one of your daughters do the TV ad but NOT YOU. A man who complains that a woman is picking on him becomes the butt of jokes for guys and turns off women no matter what any metrosexuals tell you otherwise.

Now the debates will help because it is impossible for Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren to not speak for herself there but if you are playing duck dodge and hide it won’t wash. Never forget this rule: Never try to out liberal a liberal it won’t win you a single vote among actual liberals and it just turns off conservatives & independents.

You are an appealing candidate and a pretty good senator, people like you, I like you. Just be yourself and say what you’ve done and what you believe.   Be proactive not reactive and you will win, be reactive and you give your opponent an opening she doesn’t deserve.