Realville: Pew Unskews sample Washington Post joins Poll “Truthers”

There is a ton of crowing on the right and worry on the left based on the new PEW poll showing President Obama’s +8 lead turning into a Mitt Romney 4 point lead in just 30 days.

Granted the debate was devastating but even no, especially with polls one finds encouraging, it is VITAL to see if there is some hanky panky going on with the sample.

Last time I hit the PEW poll because the sample was D+9 when I saw the D vs R sample number on this poll I saw something I have never NEVER seen before in a national poll:

A +4 R sample in a national poll? Say What!

That is a 13 point sample swing, 13 points. if you compare this to the Rasmussen numbers this poll slight oversamples the GOP by 1.4 pts. I have never EVER seen a national poll do his and neither have any of you.

So what happens when you skew the sample 13 points in the other direction? Lo and behold the results…move in the other direction.

“But DaTechGuy” you say, How do we know both samples aren’t right? Can’t this isn’t just more people saying they are Republican because they NOW support Romney, you know following the crowd and all that?”

Glad you asked my boy, glad you asked.

Remember last month when I looked at this poll I looked at the numbers concerning who the sampled voted for in 2008, saw the ridiculous gap in the figures and said this:

That’s a 15 point Obama edge in an election that Obama won by 7.2 but it’s even worse because those numbers are based on 86. if you do the full percentages based on 100% of voters it comes out Obama 54.6% (+1.7 over 2008) and McCain 37.2% (-8.6 under 2008) in this sample.

Now you might think Obama is ahead but does anyone ANYONE believe he will do 1.7 point better than 2008. Does anyone ANYONE believe Romney will underperform McCain by 8.6?

Maybe that will fool Talking points Memo, Firedoglake and the like but it won’t fool anyone who can, you know do MATH.

I looked at that same Obama vs McCain question in the new poll. In this sample the 15 point edge is down to 5

And lets do the math again to turn those who voted into the proper percentages

Obama 52.9

(pct of Sample that voted Obama)=42 (obama 08 voters)/85(number who voted)

McCain 43.5

(pct of Sample that voted McCain)=37 (obama 0 8 voters)/85(number who voted)

Ok in this sample the Obama sample matches his 2008 figure EXACTLY, while the McCain sample is under by a mere 2.3 points. Unless all of these people were lying about who they were voting for last time and suddenly got religion we have a sample that is within 2.3% of the actual vote in 2008

So what does this mean?

It means that when you have a poll that closely reflects the actual GOP vs Dem split (within 1.4 points of it if you believe Rasmussen) you get a result that accurately reflects what is going on rather than a Democrat fantasy.

Much as I hate to give solace to Andrew Sullivan, public opinion didn’t swing 12 points in a week, Pew simply took a sample that almost matches the American electorate and we are seeing what was already there, only more so.

Postscript: I follow memeorandum on twitter and as I was finishing this post I saw this jaw dropping tweet:

I followed that tweet to this story at the Washington Post:

If either Pew or Gallup kept their “sample balance” constant, there would be far less of a shift in their headline numbers. Poll watchers need to closely assess both trend-lines as the election draws near.

That’s exactly right but wasn’t that the same argument I’ve been making right along? The argument that got all of us called Poll “Truther” and poll “Deniers” and “Conspiracy Theorists”?

All I have to say is Pew, welcome to Realville!

Exit Question: Is this sample Pew’s attempt to correct itself pre-election or will see a new poll just before the day re-skewed to try and create the Obama comeback?

Update: Twitchy notices

After screening out respondents who are unlikely to vote, Pew was left with a sample of likely voters that was R+3, according to Chuck Todd.

If the sample in the Pew poll is skewed toward Republicans, it probably is not off by much. A month ago, Rasmussen reported a 2-point edge for Republicans in party ID. In Wisconsin’s recall election a few months ago, the partisan breakdown was R+1, according to exit polls. Party ID was tied 35-35 in 2010.

But we’re glad to see liberals acknowledge that polls can be skewed and that it is possible for a sample to over-represent members of one party or the other. Maybe Obama supporters won’t call us insane the next time we question a D+13 sample.

Chuck Todd? Chuck Todd is now a poll truther? I didn’t see him at the meeting, does he know the secret handshake?

Update 2: Althouse watches Sully’s meltdown and figures it out:

Sorry, but it’s hard not to see this as a lot of posing. A set up for the big announcement that Obama is back. If Obama is any good at all in the next debate or the one after that, we’ll be told the man is a miracle.


Update 3:
That new Pennsylvania Poll that has Romney down 2 pts has some interesting splits:

If you include leaners then it’s one point closer.

As for registration

I don’t have a lot of faith in Pennsylvania, there will be plenty of walking around money in the cities and the suspension of the ID law for this election means the left has one last chance to do what they do best. 2016 will be different but I don’t have high hopes here.

As for Michigan the internals of that poll aren’t out yet but the last one was D+5 be very interested to see what this one is.

Update 4: Michigan internals are now out here is the sample:

So the sample is D+5 has Barack Obama up 3 48-45. Last month when the numbers showed Obama up 10 47-37 the sample was….D+5

be afraid Democrats, be very afraid.

Update Bottom: Oh and a reminder, the Washington Post is a multi-million dollar corporation and the people they pay just figured out poll samples matter.

I am a guy who since the Obama years makes his entire living from Ads and Tip Jar hitters and have been saying this for months. If you think that my analysis of polls that the Washington Post finally has figured out, is worth something I would be most grateful if you were to hit the DaTipJar to help keep this stuff coming




And of course Tip Jar hitter get the codes for my Subscriber only videos the newest once comes out tomorrow.

Tina Brown comes out as a Captialist

I noticed Ed Driscoll’s writeup at Instapundit on the new Newsweek cover:

Clapped-out sclerotic old magazine with one foot in death’s door increasingly believes in salvation in the afterlife, if this latest Newsweek cover is any indication.

Boy, between the above cover, the mausoleum-like Newseum, and the Washington Post investing in a hospice care facility, the MSM sure is obsessed with death these days, aren’t they? Contrast this with the 1960s, when a Time magazine cover gleefully killed off God, at the apex of that youth-obsessed decade.

While I’m usually not one who minds hitting the MSM and Snark is great Ed misses the significance of this issue of Newsweek.

Taken alone a Newsweek cover of this nature is no big deal but consider the last few weeks:

One cover that appeals to conservatives is an oddity.

Two covers that suggested things might be happening

we might be one cover too soon to say it but it appears that she has seen the numbers both financial and demographic and decided to go where no liberal has gone before.

Now we have three count em THREE covers that are designed to get conservative to buy the magazine.

I must conclude that Tina Brown has come out as a Capitalist, I hope she gets a better reception from her friends coming out than Stacy Dash as a Romney Supporter

Update: Cripes those guys really mean it, this is from The Daily Beast.

But it isn’t just foreign donations that are a concern. So are fraudulent donations. In the age of digital contributions, fraudsters can deploy so-called robo-donations, computer programs that use false names to spew hundreds of donations a day in small increments, in order to evade reporting requirements. According to an October 2008 Washington Post article, Mary Biskup of Missouri appeared to give more than $170,000 in small donations to the 2008 Obama campaign. Yet Biskup said she never gave any money to the campaign. Some other contributor gave the donations using her name, without her knowledge. (The Obama campaign explained to the Post that it caught the donations and returned them.)

This makes it all the more surprising that the Obama campaign does not use a standard security tool, the card verification value (CVV) system—the three- or four-digit number often imprinted on the back of a credit card, whose purpose is to verify that the person executing the purchase (or, in this case, donation) physically possesses the card. The Romney campaign, by contrast, does use the CVV—as has almost every other candidate who has run for president in recent years, from Hillary Clinton in 2008 to Ron Paul this year. (The Obama campaign says it doesn’t use the CVV because it can be an inhibiting factor for some small donors.) Interestingly, the Obama campaign’s online store requires the CVV to purchase items like hats or hoodies (the campaign points out that its merchandise vendor requires the tool).

This is incredible, and good news for Oswin Oswald, if a member of the Dalek media can be converted maybe she can still be saved!

DaTechGuy on Da Radio and the Coolest Halloween Bag EVAH!

I’ve got good news and bad news

The good news is if you missed DaTechGuy on DaRadio Saturday with our interview with Bishop EW Jackson you can listen to it here.

The bad news is that means you missed seeing me live at the American Products store Crafts event that I broadcasted live from

The Good news Is you can still See me live at Lago Ristorante on Mill Street in Worcester on the 20th as we broadcast our 100th show from there.

The Bad news is you won’t be able to buy the coolest Halloween Candy bag EVAH there

The Good news is you can still that Candy Corn Halloween Bag and other cool American Made products from Colby Creations online

and if you order the Halloween bag (not on the site)  for only $1 extra Colby will personalize it

The Bad news is you can’t get food like this ordering online from Colby

The good news is you CAN get food of this quality at Lago Ristorante where out 100th Anniversary show/brunch is.

The bad news is seating is limited so you need to reserve your spot.

The good news is you can reserve it right now.

Hope to see you there on Oct 20th.

All you need to know about Mitt Romney’s Foreign Policy Speech in one Tweet

If you didn’t see Mitt Romney’s foreign Policy. Here is all you need to know in one Tweet:

And all you need to know about the MSM response to Mitt Romney’s speech in one tweet

That is all

Realville: My late Father & the Obama Campaign

What do you think the Swedes’ll say sir?” he asked, greatly daring. The responsibility was none of his, and he knew by experience that Hornblower was likely to resent being reminded that Bush was thinking about it.

“They can say what they like” said Hornblower, “but nothing they can say can but Blanchefleur together again”

C. S. Forester Commodore Hornblower 1945 p 129

My father has been dead for over 25 years but one of the lessons he taught me that really stuck was this: If something needs to be done, don’t ask permission first do it, DO IT!

It has served me well, particularly in reporting, but the administration seems to have taken this advice to the next level.

There is under 40 days to the election, Barack Obama will never be running for president again (I don’t subscribe to the “dictator” theory that some hold) the idea is to get re-elected. As I’ve pointed out for over a year, the facts on the ground and the actions of those with skin in the game have indicated disaster for a long time.

While media has instead been all “happy happy joy joy” the Obama campaign knows where things actually are, when they are behind closed door they are forced to live in realville. The first rule is to WIN, that is the thing they want to do and they are not going to worry about the niceties.

  1. They would much rather deal with questions of voting irregularities controlling the justice department not worry about that from Hawaii.
  2. They would much rather talk to Lockheed now about disobeying the law and let Jay Carney try to answer Jake Tapper’s questions than hit a President Romney over the job losses.
  3. They would much rather talk about a 7.8% jobs figure during the month of October and then wait for the “adjusted figures” in a month or two, than have to deal with one more month of defending 8% on the campaign trail.
  4. They would much rather take those untraced credit card contributions with the security codes off, then explain why the money isn’t there for those 30 second attack ads.
  5. They would much rather deal with a GOP congress investigating the administration on Fast & Furious, Libya, Solyndra et/al then have a GOP congress ignore them as old news of the last administration.

And while the Media would “question the timing” if a GOP candidate was running for re-election the Obama campaign knows the media will question the questioning instead.

It’s like the old Joke Tip O’Neill told in his book about the bartender calling the owner to see if Casey is good for a drink:

Owner: Has he had it?

Bartender: Yes

Owner: Then he’s good for it.

Now my father was a principled man who wouldn’t do a dishonest thing if you paid him (and on occasion suffered dearly for his refusal to do so but that’s another story) but if you believe with hundreds of millions of dollars at stake and power few people can imagine the Chicago Crowd is going to have any restraints.

Then you’re at worst in the tank or at best a sucker.