Three Reasons Why The Left Might Be Better Off with a Trump SCOTUS appointment NOW vs Later

Yesterday I talked about the reasons why the GOP should be happy to ignore Democrat Pleas to wait on replacing Ginsberg, now here are a couple of reasons why the Democrats might wint Trump to replace Ginsberg NOW!

Reason one  Murkowski and Collins

Right now the GOP has only a single seat majority in the Senate and the key swing votes are Murkowski and Collins.  Of all the senators in the caucus they are the most likely to force President Trump into a more moderate choice for SCOTUS.

If Donald Trump wins (likely) and has coattails (likely) the Democrats are apt to find themselves in a position where the votes of Murkowski and Collins (if she survives) are not needed to get a conservative judge across the line, particularity since Alabama is unlikely to stay Democrat and Manchin is very likely to vote his state rather than his party.   If that is the case you might see a Justice that makes Antonin Scalia look like Earl Warren.

Reason Two Turnout

Since the best chance for Democrats to win in 2020 is to further motivate potential Democrat voters.  Nothing would do so more than a successful replacement of Justice Ginsberg with a conservative, particularly as a club to use against GOP senators in states like ME and COL

Given that the primary reason for Democrat power IS power the short term gain from such an event is likely to pay high dividends at a time when they need such a thing to counter the Trump economy.

Reason Three Breaking the cycle of dependence 

One of the reasons why the Democrat party has pretty much become an urban regional party has been their reliance on the courts.  Namely why bother to try to win over the people when you can count on the courts to legislate your agenda for you.

If Ginsberg is replaced by a solid conservative now it will finally force the Democrat party to do what it needs to do to survive long term, actually connect with voters and serve their needs.  The president’s inroads with minority voters demonstrates the dangers of relying on a race based coalition and of course any splits in the various groups (see the Tom Hagen Math posts) are likely to isolate the party even more.

The party can’t wean itself out of it’s dependence on the courts and re-connect with the actual votes until that break is complete.  A Trump appointment would do that.

Of course this point assumes party leaders care about the future and when your party is about narcissism and not having children that’s a rather big assumption isn’t it?

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