What an Opening for Central America on Trade

There is a famous political saying that one should never let a crisis go to waste, and another not from the political world that says one man’s meat is another man poison one piece of the China Trade Wars / Virus story is the opportunity it provides for countries in Central America, land of the caravans.

As has been noted the primary driver of the refugees and caravans that had been driving policy at the US border is economic. People need work and see the US as an entry point for this. As someone who has for the last five years worked in a place where Spanish, Portuguese , Creole were more common than English and Arabic almost as common I have seen this close up.

With both the Trade wars and now the Corona virus running rampant in China there is now a great incentive for produces of products to find alternatives to China for production.

Why not Central America?

This has the potential of a win win win here, you have countries closer to the US in terms of shipping, populations looking for work, governments eager to increase their tax base and to make an even darker point criminal organizations in the area looking for legitimate ways to launder money.

Furthermore given the relative population of China vs Central America the number of jobs and industries needed to fund a boom in the region would be a relative pin-prick in the side of the Communist state.

Now there are risks, you have the randomness of the corruption of the local governments (yes you have the corruption of a communist state in China but it tends to be more ordered and predictable) you have the costs of setting up a supply chain, and you never know what revolutionary group is going to spring up and of course you have the Cartels which if they don’t invest in the ventures will “tax” them to allow them to operate.

However even with those risks you have not only an alternative supplier in case of disaster but a way to lift people out of poverty where they are so they don’t have to come in caravan to the US to make a better life.

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