The Tom Brady Tampa Bay Bucks Expectations Game

A few days ago I wrote about the new expectations that New England Patriots fans should have with Tom Brady no longer on their team. Now lets look at the expectations game for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who have now signed Tom Brady to a contract in keeping with his status as the greatest football player who has ever lived.

As we have demonstrated the New England Patriots were a team that in their 41 year history before Tom Brady came on the scene

  • Had a winning record 55% of the time
  • won 11 or more game (10 in a 14 game season) 14.6% of the time
  • won their division 12% of the time
  • made the playoffs 24% of the time
  • won a playoff game 9.7% of the time
  • went to a championship game 7% of the time winning 0%

but during the twenty years that Brady played for them

  • Had a winning record 100% of the time
  • The Patriots won at least 12 games 70% of the time
  • The Patriots won their division & made the playoffs 90% of the time
  • The Patriots won at LEAST one playoff game 70% of the time
  • The Patriots went to the Superbowl 50% of the time
  • The Patriots WON the superbowl 30% of the time (67% of the times they went)

Let’s now look at the history of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Tampa Bay entered the NFL as an expansion team in 1976 when the league played a 14 game season. Their 1st season was played in the AFC and they were moved to the NFC in their 2nd year In their 43 Years they have had

  • Had a winning record 30% of the time (13 seasons)
  • Won 11 or more games 7% of the time (3 seasons 1999,2002,2005)
  • Won their division 12% of the time (1970,1981, 1999,2002,2005,2007)
  • Made the playoffs 23% of the time (10 seasons)
  • Won at least 1 playoff game 9% of the time (1979,1997,1999,2002)
  • Won the Superbowl 2% (100% of the times they went 2002)

By an odd coincidence the year Tampa Bay won the Superbowl 2002 is the only year that Brady played a full season and failed to win at least 10 or make the playoffs.

In short while their percentage of winning seasons, 11 game seasons and superbowl appearances are about half the rate of the pre-Brady Patriots their rate of division wins, playoff appearances and winning at least one playoff game are almost identical

Given these status one should expect a dramatic improvement to this team with three caveats.

  1. Tom Brady’s stats with the Patriots include games played by him from ages 23-42 All of Brady’s games with Tampa Bay will be played form age 43-45
  2. None of these games will be coached by Bill Belichick

As to the question of how much weight this should be given it’s worth noting that In three seasons Tom Brady has played at age 40 he has:

  • Had a winning record 100% of the time
  • Won at least 12 games 67% of the time (at least 11 100%)
  • Won his division 100% of the time
  • Made the playoffs 100% of the time
  • Won at least 1 playoff game 67% of the time
  • Gone to the Superbowl 67% of the time
  • Won the Superbowl 33% of the time

During those three years Tampa Bay has

  • Had a losing record 100% of the time
  • Missed the playoffs 100% of the time

As for Bill Belichick in the two seasons with New England where he didn’t have Tom Brady at Quarterback he

  • Had a winning record 50% of the time
  • Won at least 12 games 0% of the time
  • Made the playoffs 9% of the time

So given these factors and the level of Tampa Bay at this time and the fact that he’s sharing a division with Drew Brees here is what if Brady signs with the Bucks for three years the expectations game should be.

  • Tampa Bay Should expect to have a winning record 100% of the time
  • Tampa Bay Should expect to win at least 10 games 67% of the time
  • Tampa Bay Should expect to make the playoffs 67% of the time
  • Tampa Bay Should expect to win at least one playoff game 67% of the time
  • They should expect to win their division at least 33% of the time
  • They should make the NFC Championship game at least once

Anything less that this would be in my opinion failure anything more than this would be gravy.

I suspect that Tampa Bay fans will expect better than me and if they aren’t in the NFC championship game by 2021 will be pissed.