On Saturday Robert Stacy McCain put up an excellent post concerning the math of the Corona/Wuhan virus:
Notice I’m counting deaths, rather than the reported number of infections. The reason for this is that death is a fixed target, whereas identifying people who are infected is variable. It has been reported that about 80% of people infected with Wuhan coronavirus have only mild symptoms — a few days of sniffling and sneezing, no different than the common cold — and some have no symptoms at all. There has been a shortage of tests for the virus, and many U.S. patients have only been tested in the past few days, so we can expect a significant upswing in the number of known cases over the next week or so, but that does not necessarily mean the actual number of cases is increasing. Therefore, I’m focusing strictly on the number of deaths from the virus.
This is an important point because reducing the number of deaths is the actual goal of all the draconian measures taken to this point.
Stacy Also points out something I’ve mentioned on the Podcast more than once that blue urban areas are the ones most affected.
The key will be to keep track of (a) the total number of U.S. deaths, and (b) the percentage of deaths in the top 10 states in comparison to the rest of the country. As I say, the number of people reported as infected may increase rapidly without telling us very much. You could test positive for Wuhan coronavirus and never get very sick at all. It’s the serious cases requiring hospitalization that will put a strain on our health-care system, and the number of deaths will be a good barometer of how that’s going.
If you don’t have any symptoms, you don’t need to be tested. The media are panicking about the lack of testing because guess what? The media are based in urban centers where the risk of getting this disease is much higher than it is for Americans living out in the boondocks
That’s part of the key as well, if you are in an urban center and/or a place full of people who travel internationally you are much more likely to get the virus than if you are getting a scallop dinner for takeout at Mike’s Clam Shack in Wells Maine as I did with DaWife on Friday. Thus NY, Chicago LA & DC have cause more cause for concern than folks in Fitchburg MA or Wells ME.
But there is one other component of the math that Stacy is Missing concerning the hue and cry over testing. It a point I was making concerning the President’s handling of the case during my tale of Brer Donkey, Brer Rino, Brer Trump and the Coronabriarpatch
Meanwhile Brer Trump took Brer Owl and his team’s advice and coordinated with industry. He realized that while you couldn’t destroy the #coronabriarpatch he started taking the steps needed to keep the #coronabriarpatch under control and did such a good job that even Brer Newsom and Brer Cuomo who worked for Brer Donkey had some nice things to say about him.
Nevertheless Brer Media, Brer Deepstate Brer Rino and Brer Donkey kept insisting that millions of people where going to die and the economy of Brer Eagle’s land was going to tank in the #coronabriarpatch because Brer Trump was doing a bad job. They insisted be thrown in the CornoaBriarPatch and prove there was a safe way out. They were convinced that he wouldn’t be able to get out before election day to stop Brer Old Slow Joe.
Remember for the media and the left the Corona Virus isn’t a dangerous disease that needs to be stopped, to them Donald Trump is the disease and the Corona Virus and panic over it are the tools to use in order to destroy him.
That’s why they are so fixated on the number of infections vs the number of deaths and why they are so anxious to push the idea that not having a test for everyone is proof of failure. This isn’t about informing the public in a crisis situation, it’s about throwing that same “Orange Man Bad” pitch that they’ve been hurling for three years and tying to generate a metric to help that pitch alone.
As I noted on twitter a few days ago:
Always remember that a crisis isn’t going to cause dishonorable people to suddenly become honorable or communists to suddenly renounce micromanaging, mendacity & murder— Peter Ingemi (@DaTechGuyblog) March 19, 2020
Anyone who thinks the media has changed its stripes over this crisis is a fool.