Five Debate (if it happens) Thoughts Under the Fedora

As of this writing, (9 AM EST Monday) the 1st Debate between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden is still on.

This is undoubtedly a surprise to many who thought the Democrats would not risk such a thing but they may have decided it is too big a risk NOT to have said debate.

Anyways how Biden does will in my opinion determine if there are any more debates or even if he stays on the ticket, but one thing is certain. If he is still breathing and can remember his own name it will be proclaimed an unadulterated triumph.

I really thought Ginsberg’s death and the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett would “Trump” any new “October Surprise” that the left was playing but the NYT decided to go all in on illegally leaked tax forms.

I suspect that the media will make much of it and Biden will try to play it up in the debate but as the leaked data not only shows no illegality, nor links to the Russians but verifies what POTUS has said for years that he’s been under audit I suspect he will be able to swat that away pretty well, and even counter that if a President’s taxes can be illegally leaked by the Deep state Democrats with an agenda then how safe is your “confidential” data if they are in power with an AG that will ignore this stuff. This tweet and reply says it all

Speaking of Barrett it will be interesting to see how Joe “I’m a good catholic really I am” Biden answer questions concerning the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. I’m sure President Trump will challenge him on some of the anti-catholic stuff but I’m thinking Biden will come back with healthcare Healthcare HEALTHCARE which actually means obamacare Obamacare OBAMACARE

I don’t think that’s a winning issue for the left but it’s their safest move.

The real danger for the Biden campaign if the James O’Keefe Stuff that dropped Sunday Night documenting voter fraud in Minnesota and more importantly unlike the “big stories” that the media has pushed, contains actual video and on the record sources.

It goes without saying that the moderator will avoid this like the plague, although attempts to bring up “will you commit to concede if defeated” questions will give President Trump a huge opening to run with this story.

This is exactly the type of thing that will get an already motivated Trump base excited and will, if viewed by people who watch the debate will cause them to distrust Democrats.

Finally who will win? Well Powerline says this:

Going back at least as far as Ronald Reagan, incumbent presidents have not done well in first debates. Bill Clinton is the only exception.

I think the problem for incumbents is overconfidence. After four years in office, presidents think they know enough and have enough experience handling questions to get through a debate in good shape. I suspect this overconfidence leads to insufficient preparation.

In addition, incumbents tend not to be used to having their statements challenged. As a result of these factors, incumbents typically struggle under the onslaught of challengers, who typically are desperate.

I think this will not be a problem. Trump has dealt with the onslaught of a hostile press every day in office, additionally You have to remember who Trump is speaking to. His escalator speech was universally panned by the experts but was designed to be understood and applauded by normal people. Expect more of that.

But I’ll repeat my line from the 1st paragraph, If he is still breathing and can remember his own name it will be proclaimed an unadulterated triumph for him by the media.

Side thought. If Drudge puts up a “who won the debate” poll it will be the 1st time in months that conservatives bother to visit his site.

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