Some Election Math Police Edition

I’ve always known how to count

Tip O’Neill

I keep getting a lot of flack for predicting that Donald Trump will win re-election. Let me give you a little bit of thinking math.

As Byron Preston notes there are over 700,000 law enforcement agents in the US. That doesn’t count retired members.

The Democrats in general and Joe Biden in particular have thrown cops under the bus

These people have children, grandchildren and friends who know the risks they take every day.

These groups have made their preferences known, not only has the The National Association of Police Organizations endorsed Donald Trump but now police organizations, more than 100 of them, are refusing to supply officers to protect the shrunk down Democrat Convention

And you expect me to be spooked by MSM & University polls?

Boil the Chinese Seeds before you toss them

I was rather astonished, although I shouldn’t be, about this story:

Amateur gardeners beware: Officials in at least 27 states are warning the public about unsolicited seeds sent from China and appearing in mailboxes across the U.S., including in Texas.

The Texas Department of Agriculture says the seeds “could contain harmful invasive species or be otherwise unsafe” and urges Texans to not touch or plant the seeds.

And it’s not just in the US:

The New York Times reported that officials in Washington State, Virginia, Kentucky, Colorado, Delaware, Georgia, Iowa, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Wyoming, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, South Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia, Florida, and Alabama have all put out warnings about the seeds. The Daily Mail also reported that “hundreds of British gardeners” have received seeds as well.

Some officials are also asking residents to avoid throwing the seeds away, lest they begin growing in landfills.

My advice is if you can’t get them to a lab to be analyzed I’d boil them before tossing them.

Closing thought: Presuming this is either an invasive species or something polluted to damage the soil or endanger lives, how is this not an act of war by China?

Quick Tuesday Thoughts Offensive Statues , Saxon & de Havilland missed Redsox & WNBA not Under The Fedora:

It makes perfect sense that Antifa & BLM are able to convince young college student to pull down statues of great men.

Every moment such statues stand it’s a reminder that they have no now nor are likely to every accomplish even a tiny percentage of the good such men have done. No wonder they’re offended by them

It’s actually the same reason why the MSM & Boomers kept classifying the WW 2 generation as “the greatest generation”. If they are the “greatest” then it’s not odd that the boomer and other fail to achieve what they did.


Actor John Saxon died this weekend. He was a guy who seemed to be everywhere, always did his job well, made the people around him better but never managed to get top billing on a big moves or show.

The John Saxons of the world keep it going


Speaking of actor’s dying Oliva de Havilland died this weekend at 104. She was the last great star of Hollywood still with us (Angelia Lansbury 9 years younger came later). Of the 16 movies I own on Amazon Prime she co-stars with Errol Flynn in four of them. With her finally dies the Golden Age of Hollywood.

I wonder how many of the obits running today and yesterday on her were initially and largely authored decades ago by writers now dead?

Well cancel culture can now come for her, if not for Gone With the Wind or her roll in speaking out against communism maybe for the fact that the 1st act she does in the 1st significant movie she appeared in (Captain Blood) involves her buying Errol Flynn’s character Peter Blood at a slave auction.


Apparently the 1st Baseball game which was the 1st broadcast of a Major Sports game since the COVID closer had, as might be expected rating through the roof.

To those who might claim this as proof that the kneeling to the anthem in empty stadiums and the BLM messages will not hurt their draw let me remind them that the 1st episode of Jodie Whitaker’s run on Doctor Who had high ratings too.

I wonder how than ended?

Meanwhile Sunday for the 1st time in my life I was driving a car at a time when the Redsox where playing a game and did NOT turn on the radio to listen.

Didn’t miss it and given the COVID 19 outbreak among the Marlins this might be the shortest season in history.


Oh and I had to laugh when I read this story of the WNBA teams walking off the court during the national anthem, which according to a correction took place before the anthem (like it matters).

Either way if there is any sports league that will not be hurt by this it’s this one. Given the predominance of the uber woke within their microscopic fan base it would likely help.

Even better for the WNBA they are so used to playing in empty arenas that their players’ games are unlikely to be affected not to mention that for the 1st and likely last time in their history their fan draw at games will be equal to the NBA.

The Left’s Southern Article of Faith Collides with the Data. (updated and bumped)

(Note, this post was originally posted on Aug 17th 2017. However the subject came up during my appearance on fault lines radio this morning so I thought I’d repost and bump it so listeners could see the actual post and data I was referring to.)

If you are even slightly a leftist such as the folks I covered on the Boston Common this weekend one of the things that you believe without question is that the only reason why the GOP has control of legislatures in the south is because of a backlash over the civil rights act of 1964 and the voting rights act of 1965.
This has been an article of faith for years and it’s quite handy when you want to explain away uncomfortable electoral defeats. Why woo voters when you can simply cry “racism”.

It’s an easy to sell argument, after all the pre 1964 south was called the solid south for a reason. Through 1892 no former slave state (including border states) voted for a GOP presidential candidate. No state of the old confederacy voted GOP post reconstruction till Tennessee voted Harding 1920. Through 1955 when the fight for civil rights started looming large the GOP only managed to take states in the old confederacy two more times once when Eisenhower after winning World War to managed to take Texas, Tennessee, Florida, Virginia and once in the Herbert Hoover landslide of 1928 that added North Carolina to that list.

But the real power of the Democrats in the south wasn’t in presidential elections where they were outnumbered. It was in the state legislatures, where, with the exception of Missouri which was pretty competitive in the first half of the 20th century A republican speaker of the House in the old south and most of the old slave states (I’m missing data for Delaware) just didn’t exist.

And then came Democrat Lyndon Baines Johnson

In 1957 Johnson in an effort “sanitize” himself on civil rights for a presidential run pushed through the first civil rights bill post reconstruction. When he became president after JFK’s murder in 1963 he managed to get the Civil Rights act of 1964 passed doing so with only 8 votes from the old confederacy in the house and none in the senate, he followed that up with the Voting Rights act in 1965 and declaring that he would secure the black vote for Democrats for the next 2 centuries (although he used somewhat different phrasing describing the black vote, employing a word rhyming with “trigger”).

It is at this point that according to our friends on the left that the old solid racist south (including many of the slave holding border states) decided to abandon the Democrat party and started voting GOP

However there is one problem that stands in the way of that argument: The facts.

As Tip O’Neill once said all politics is local and nothing better reflects the feelings of a local electorate than a vote for a state legislator. So if the left’s meme is to be believed it shouldn’t have taken more than a few two year election cycles for a combination of mass defections and outraged old racists to fill the south with GOP speakers in their houses. So let’s take a look at a chart that lists all the old slaveholding states and see how quickly those racist southerners and old segregationists managed to flip their states to their new favorite party.

 

[table id=1 ]

As you can see when the data is presented the left’s article of faith runs smack dab of a factual cliff.

With the exception of a two year period of in Tennessee when a democrat defector gave the GOP the house for one term, No state of the old confederacy elected a GOP house until 1995 and even with that happened in North and South Carolina, North Carolina flipped back to the Democrats the very next election and stayed there until 2011.

Of those states only one other (Florida) joined South Carolina as a solid GOP state in the 20th century five of the states flipped this decade. And think about it. If you believe our friends on the left then Alabama the state where Martin Luther King wrote is famous Letter from a Birmingham Jail and Mississippi the state where the famous case of the murder of civil rights workers dramatized in the film Mississippi Burning took place in the 60’s were so apparently so outraged over the Civil Rights act, the Voting Rights act and LBJ that their voters they waited nearly 2 1/2 generations to vote GOP.

That’s simply not credible.

Now as this is such an article faith for our Democrat friends they will sooner imagine armies of ancient segregationists bussed from Nursing Homes on election day each years than believe the data.

Because there is a much more credible explanation as to why the left is losing the South that’s staring them in the face but that’s a post for later this week.

Update:  Heard back from the Delaware legislative librarian 9/21.  She was out on Friday but when she got back she kindly provided me both house and senate info from 1965 to present that I’ve used to update my table.  Many Thanks


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DaTechGuy will be on DaRadio as Lee Stranahan Guest on Fault Lines Radio Monday 8:15 AM Update (His son’s guest)

Tomorrow barring my sleeping through alarms I’ll be appearing on Fault Lines Radio as old friend Lee Stranahan’s guest at about 8:15 EST to talk about the Democrats return to 1860 and 1957 in their rhetoric which I discussed here on my podcast and wrote about here on the blog.

You can find the link to the show at @faultlinesradio’s twitter page.

It will be fun.

Update: Apparently Lee’s son Shane hosts this show didn’t realize that

will still be fon

One Reason to Thank BLM & Antifa…

…is illustrated by this tweet from Andy Ngo:

Thanks to the efforts of BLM and Antifa a very clear line has been drawn between what happens when to an area where the Democrat/Left is given control

Meanwhile Harris Faulkner illustrated the difference between when Democrats are in control and when they are not with a simple question

Personally I think it’s a public service when, just before an important election the difference in a binary choice between the consequences of Democrats governing and Republicans governing is illustrated for all the people to see before they make their choice.

At least then if they vote for violence and riots and the burning of city blocks. They shall do it with eyes wide open and will be getting the government they deserve.

The 1st Amendment Before & After Roberts

The 1st Amendment before John Roberts was confirmed as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States of America

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances.

The 1st Amendment after John Roberts Old Yellowstain was confirmed as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States America

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise of casino gambling; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances.

Any questions?

DaTechGuy Off DaRadio Livesream 3 PM EST Let’s Outdraw @joebiden edition or It’s 1860 & 1957 Again!

Today at 3 PM EST the DaTechGuy off DaRadio livestream no frills podcast returns with a specific goal in mind. Outdrawing Joe Biden!

Joe Biden held a livestream last week and despite being elected to congress in 1972 and continually being the public spotlight from congress to being elected Vice President in 2008 and now being nominated for President by the Democrats drew a whole 18 people to his livestream podcast.

Can a D list blogger who currently has a catholic radio show on a local station, had a political show for five years carried on a few stations with only one TV appearance and one national Oped under his belt outdraw a Democrat Presidential candidate? With your help we can.

Our topics today will be:

  1. The Democrat rhetoric returns to 1860 & 1857
  2. MLB, NHL, NBA, NFL go full woke
  3. Polls and trust

And maybe a line about the left channeling Groucho as well as Karl Marx

It all starts at 3 PM EST you can watch the livestream here. (last weeks show is a placeholder below, current show will appear below at about 2:55 PM EST )

Please tune in and lets see if the currently Democrat president who is supposedly leading all over the national pols can outdraw a guy at home on his couch.

Completely Anecdotal Restaurant Story

Yesterday DaWife had some good news so before I went to work (it was her day off) we celebrated by going to her favorite Chinese spot in the area that just reopened Singapore the oldest Chinese restaurant in Fitchburg (replacing Dan Chans that burned down years ago where we ate on our 1st date).

That choice became a little more iffy after being seated. The bar was closed but there were seats in that area and plenty of room in the main dining room despite distancing and booths closed. It was nice to see the regular greeter who sat us quickly, but that was the only thing quick as we waited and waited which was a problem as I had to be to work.

However as I watched I noticed two interesting things

  1. the boss was taking orders and busing tables
  2. There was only one waitress and rather than being Chinese as 95% of the staff over the last 20 years has been she a white American in her 30’s.

She was constantly on the run but after some time I managed to catch her She took our order and explained that she normally works one or two days a week (her regular job is as an x-ray tech) but they were in a bind as none of the regular staff wanted to work.

Well we got our order and as I ate I saw her rushing from table to table with orders, busing as she could while the boss did the same. I commented that as the only waitress I hoped she was doing well on tips but she mentioned people were a bit annoyed because of the time but with tables in three rooms and only DaBoss to help I think she did a fine job.

As I was leaving I wished her luck, she commented that another part timer was coming in for the evening so that might help a bit but I wasn’t sure how late she was staying so it might be that young lady’s turn to run like the wind all night. As I walked to the door I noted DaBoss talking to another table talking about the staff situation saying: “Nobody wants to work.”

While I don’t begrudge anyone beneifts that congress has voted on I have a funny feeling that next week when that extra federal $600 is gone a lot of the ladies who were working but didn’t want to come in this week will suddenly discover the joys of having a job.

Unexpectedly of course.

The Democrat Slavery/Jim Crow Not Our Business Argument is Back For Portland

Before my wife finally got her negative COVID test back allowing me to return to work (for some reason they didn’t record she was a healthcare worker and her case wasn’t expedited so poof went days of pay for us both) I had an interesting exchange with a fellow concerning what’s going on in Portland Ore where the family of DaWife’s father is from and where I almost moved after honeymooning there (Apparently the best non-move I ever made in my life).

Along with the standard mostly un-poisoned soup arguments about how peaceful most of the protesters who have been rioting for two months are I heard one argument against the Department of Homeland Security Troops being there that did have some resonance (no it wasn’t the “secret police” nonsense that my sons friends are falling for and some democrats are pushing).

This argument is that this is a local matter and in one sense he had a point. The citizens of Portland districts elected their Democrat city counsel that has supported this nonsense, the citizens of Portland as a whole elected their Democrat Mayor who has allowed these riots to take place and handcuffed their Police, the citizens of the Oregon district that includes Portland elected the Democrat congressmen defending this stuff and opposing the feds protecting federal property and the citizens of Oregon as a whole elected the Democrat governor and Democrat senators who have turned a blind eye to the violence, except to attack Federal Agents in general and President Donald Trump in particular for trying to stop it, at least when they go after Federal locations. So they’re getting what they voted for.

In fact Erick Erickson argues Let Portland Burn:

Let the market decision by letting the actions of a free people control their fate.

The President should withdraw from Portland immediately and let the city burn, if it will, or thrive if it will, but it is the choice of the people there.

A President sending in a police force to a city is a dangerous precedent that will be expanded upon even though the United States Constitution lacks a general police power. A city allowed to chose its own fate is a positive precedent from which we can all draw lessons.

Let Portland burn or not, but let it decide without intervention from Washington.

And Jazz Shaw notes:

the people of these cities continue to elect the same group of Democratic hand-wringers year after year no matter how badly conditions on the ground deteriorate. So does this mean that the rest of the nation and the federal government are out of options besides just waiting for the cities to implode?

There’s clearly an argument to be made in favor of such a conclusion, though it’s an ugly thought to contemplate. As Erickson suggests, there must surely come a point where the remaining sane people in Portland and these other cities will look around at the shootings, the rapes, the arson and the looting and come to the conclusion that something isn’t working. This relies on the old adage which holds that a liberal is just a conservative who hasn’t been mugged yet.

Now I must confess that there is some appeal in this. Why waste federal resources to protect people from their own bad decisions? I’ve heard variants of this concerning folks who build in areas that are regularly threatened by Hurricanes or Wildfires. Why should my federal tax dollars be spent to protect these fools from themselves?

But what really funny about this argument I’ve been reading these exact same points, argued by southern supporters of slavery during the 1850 up to the start of the civil war.

As I’ve mentioned before I’ve been reading Hart’s brilliant American History told by Contemporaries during my lunch break, I’m on volume four and have for the last month (not including during quarantine) been reading argument after argument by congressmen, senators, governors writers newspaper and thinkers and ordinary people both defending and opposing slavery and one of the arguments that is constantly being made by the Democrats concerning slavery is that it’s none of the North’s damn business what the south chooses to do about slavery. It’s not a federal issue but an issue for the individual states whose citizens support the institution. Here is one example:

Never, in a single instance, has the South, in any shape or form, interfered with the North in her municipal regulations ; but, on the contrary, has tamely submitted to paying tribute to the support of her manufactures, and the establishment of her commercial greatness; yet, lie the “serpent warmed in the husbandman’s bosom,” she turns upon us and stings us to the heart. If Great Briton or any foreign power, had heaped upon us the long catalog of insult and abuses that the North has, there is not a man in the whole South who would not have long since shouldered his musket, and, if necessary split his heart’s blood to have avenged them. But because we are members of the same political family it is contended we must not quarrel, but suffer all the impositions at their hands that in their fanatical spleen they may choose to heap on us.

That’s the Charleston Mercury circa 1860 which sounds an awful like the Democrats today. But you know who sounds more like them. Democrat President James Buchanan who sat back while the slave states seceded and seized federal property and arsenals:

How easy would it be for the American people to settle the slavery question forever, and to restore peace and harmony to this distracted country! They, and they alone, can do it. All that is necessary to accomplish the object, and all for which the slave States have ever contended, is to be let alone and permitted to manage their domestic institutions in their own way.

Doesn’t that sound like the whole Pelosi/Media meme of the violence will all go away and the people of Portland will be fine if Trump just ignores what’s going on.

But we don’t have to go back to the 1800’s for these words. We can go back to living memory, 1957, to the floor of the US Senate to hear the arguments of Senator Richard Russell (D-GA) made against the 1957 Civil rights act on the floor of the Senate during the Debates chronicled in Robert Caro’s extraordinary biography of Lyndon Johnson The Years of Lyndon Johnson specifically in volume three Master of the Senate (another set of books I highly recommend four volumes are out vol 5 is yet to come) this exchange from page 965 come immediately to mind:

McNamara said Michigan needed no defense, that his state could handle its affairs without outside interference. “Then why does not the Senator let us do the same?” Russell asked. There was applause from the southern senators seated around him, but he had asked a question, and he was to receive an answer to it. “McNamara,” Doris Fleeson wrote, “roared in the bull voice trained in a thousand union meeting halls: ‘Because you’ve had ninety years and haven’t done it’ “

Now I’ll readily concede that given our current education system and the lack of interest in reading anything but Howard Zinn communist approved history some of these debates and arguments might not be familiar to the current Democrat Leadership like Nancy Pelosi or Democrat Mayors like Ted Wheeler or “Journalists” like Brian Stelter let alone the rank and file leftists/ Democrats posting on facebook or twitter.

But as someone who HAS read this stuff I find it incredibility interesting that the arguments of today’s Democrat left/media are the arguments of the slaveholder and the defenders of Jim Crow and are being made under the banner of Black Lives Matter.

But it makes sense after all the slaveholder and the proponents of Jim Crow also insisted that the way of life they defended was for Black American’s own good. And just as in those days, we see blacks trapped in cities controlled by democrats, beset by crime and drugs with Democrat leaders keeping those who would free them from these plagues out supposedly for their own good.

Ah the Democrats back to their segregationist roots in public once again.