Nancy Impeachment Gambit Fails (but not in the way people think)

When word came out that Nancy Pelosi was finally going to send the impeachment articles to the Senate which will trigger the beginning of the Senate Trial people were talking about a failed strategy, however I argued that this was not the case as Pelosi’s reason for both impeachment and the holding of the articles was to try to satisfy the extreme left of her party to make it unlikely that they would primary the old hands in the house Democrat Caucus and if they lost some freshmen and the majority, it was a small price to pay.

I still submit and suggest that this was in fact the plan, but apparently it was not entirely successful:

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez threatened House Democrats who dared to work with Republicans, saying they were “putting themselves on a list” and that she would help challengers unseat them in 2020. At the time, her more seasoned colleagues assumed such rhetoric would abate once she learned how Congress operates. Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.), for example, gave her the benefit of the doubt: “She’s new here, feeling her way around. She doesn’t understand how the place works yet.” Presumably, Shrader was disabused of this fantasy when he found his name among the 24 House Democrats who will soon be “primaried” by candidates backed by two Political Action Committees linked to AOC.

Brand New Congress, a PAC co-founded by AOC’s mentor Saikat Chakrabarti and other like-minded lefties associated with Senator Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential campaign, is backing a 2020 primary challenge to Schrader by environmental activist Mark Gamba. Schrader has represented Oregon’s 5th District since 2009 and is one of the few “Blue Dog” Democrats left in Congress. Among the heresies that incurred AOC’s wrath was his July vote against a motion offered by Rep. Al Green (D-Tex.) to impeach President Trump. Schrader compounded this crime by raising the possibility of merely censuring Trump. Shortly thereafter Brand New Congress decided to endorse Gamba.

That’s the real irony here, she and the Committee Of Woke Socialists didn’t judge who gets hit based on the final successful vote for impeachment in the house, they apparently were judging based on the following list of dems being challenged the ones that came before.

Marie Newman to “primary” Dem Congressman Dan Lipinski (IL-03)

Alex Morse to “primary” Dem Congressman Richard Neal (MA-01)

Cori Bush to “primary” Dem Congressman William Lacy Clay Jr. (MO-01)

Jamaal Bowman to “primary” Dem Congressman Eliot Engel (NY-16)

Morgan Harper to “primary” Dem Congresswoman Joyce Beatty (OH-03)

Jessica Cisneros to “primary” Dem Congressman Henry Cuellar (TX-28)

Adem Bunkeddeko to “primary” Dem Congresswoman Yvette D. Clarke (NY-09)

It’s one thing to risk a bunch of freshmen seats in a congress whose control you anticipate losing anyways, it’s quite another to risk the seats of others who’ve been there a while.

That’s exactly what Pelosi was trying to prevent.

She failed.

Unremembered Gratitude, Gatez Misdemeanor, Occam on Iran, Manslaughter vs Murder Williamson goes under the fedora

There is a running gag in the TV show Maverick when both Brett or Bart Maverick after a long trip in a stagecoach or horse or whatever invariability when they get to a hotel they want a tub and hot water. As soon as it’s drawn invariability whatever lady they are paired with whether it is Connie Stevens or Kathleen Crowley appropriate the full bath from this which angers them to no end as a bathtub of water costs a dollar (the equivalent of $21.18 today) for it since someone has to haul the water, heat it and then haul it again to the tub one bucket at a time.

While California is doing it’s best to return their state to a land where a hot bath or shower is a luxury that most people can’t afford, which has been the norm the rest of us can be grateful that we live in an age and a land where such comfort is so common that it never occurs to be grateful for it.


Rep Matt Gaetz is getting a ton of flack for his vote with the Democrats on their Iran resolution in the house.

I can’t see the point of it, this resolution was symbolic, has no chance of becoming law and was about as meaningless as any that Pelosi has pushed.

After all we don’t throw Rand Paul or Mike Lee off the bus because their principles on foreign policy are different, perhaps Gaetz believes that on principle congress should not cede this power to the executive as a rule.

When he abandons the President or the Pro-life movement on something that actually matters I’ll worry but for now I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. After all people have the right to be wrong.


Had a bit of a twitter debate with a fellow who was insisting that we shouldn’t trust the US government info on the downing of that Ukranianian jet.

While there is nothing wrong with doubt Occam’s razor suggests that this was all about some panicked at the thought that Donald Trump would follow through almost at once, a perfectly reasonable explanation made more reasonable by Iran’s ducking and dodging on the investigation. Particularly with Iran doing all it can to obscure the site.

I’m wondering if those who are seeing a conspiracy here think that the pickets who shot Stonewall Jackson were actually Union spies under deep cover, after all they had the most to gain by removing him before Gettysburg…


One more thing about the jet business. I object to the use of “Murder” in describing what happened. Manslaughter or involuntary homicide would be more accurate. I suspect if the gunners knew it was a passenger jet they would not have shot it down, but given the situation it was irresponsible for Iran to let the jet go up.

Of course if you subscribe to the idea that Iran tipped us off and knew we weren’t hitting back because of it the command might have assumed they gave the battery folks a heads up. Very bad idea if so.


Finally Marianne Williamson has dropped out of the presidential race. A lot of people laughed at her but I am very relieved that she is gone.

In my opinion she was one of two candidates who had an actual chance against President Trump, not a great chance, but a chance.

You might ask why, and once all the candidates I think have a shot are gone I might give it, but until then I’ll just be satisfied that the President’s chances have improved considerably.

Republicans are handed a winning issue as Democrats call for and act on abolishment of cash bail

By John Ruberry

If your sole source of news is leftist media such as Slate, you’ll believe that there are “people who are in jail solely because they can’t afford to pay their way out.”

Nope.

There are people in jail awaiting trial because they are accused of serious crimes and they are deemed by a judge to be a threat to society.

Someone like Tiffany Harris of Brooklyn seemingly fits that bill. Late last month Harris allegedly slapped three Orthodox Jewish women as she said “F-U Jews” and was promptly arrested.

Courtesy of New York State’s new laws that eliminate most cash bails, Harris was back on the street a few days later. The next day Harris allegedly punched a woman and was arrested again–and was released.

A few days later, during a court-mandated meeting with a social worker, Harris was arrested again after allegedly pinching that worker. She went too far even for New York this time. Harris is now being held for psychiatric evaluations.

The Harris case is not an isolated one in the five days the Empire State’s new bail law has been in effect, as the Rochester Democrat & Chronicle tells us:

On Thursday, a man accused of manslaughter for choking and stabbing a woman to death in Albany was set to be released without bail under New York’s new criminal justice laws.

In Harlem, a man who allegedly hit and killed a pedestrian while driving drunk was released without bail because of the new state law that ends cash bail for misdemeanors and many non-violent felonies.

In Rochester, a man convicted a decade ago of shooting a Rochester police officer was released on new drug charges without bail.

And in Poughkeepsie, a man once convicted of manslaughter was set to be freed on new charges of felony aggravated DWI as he awaits trial, the district attorney said.

Law enforcement officials are understandably aghast over the new law, as are Republicans.

New York City’s left-wing mayor, Bill de Blasio, is now calling for a minor scaling back of the law, adding judicial discretion to keep those are the biggest threat to society either locked up or under the burden of a cash bail.

De Blasio is a former Democratic presidential candidate. Of the top tier Dems running for president, all of them, specifically Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders favor ending cash bail. So dropping it is not a fringe issue among the Democrats. Sanders has gone as far as sponsoring a Senate bill to abolish cash bail.

Anti-police rhetoric dominated liberaldom during the 2016 presidential race, which led President Trump to call himself “the law and order candidate.”

In a November Tweet, President Trump decried the New York bail law, “So sad to see what is happening in New York where Governor Cuomo & Mayor DeBlasio are letting out 900 Criminals, some hardened & bad, onto the sidewalks of our rapidly declining, because of them, city. The Radical Left Dems are killing our cities. NYPD Commissioner is resigning!”

Other Blue States are bowing to the criminals. As I noted here at Da Tech Guy, Cook County Illinois’ State’s Attorney, Kim Foxx, best known for dropping the hate crime hoax charges against Jussie Smollett, is bringing additional misery to law-abiding citizens such as myself by refusing to prosecute shoplifters who steal merchandise worth less than $1,000. Probably not coincidentally, Chicago is now plagued with shoplifting mobs. Californians will vote later this year on an initiative to eliminate cash bail–a bill enacted in the former Golden State was blocked by a lawsuit. As I also noted in that DTG entry, the headline was “Welcome to the Age of Criminals,” San Francisco’s new prosecutor, Chesa Boudin, the son of two Weather Underground terrorists, who was raised by two others, Bill Ayers and Bernardine Dohrn, wants to drop cash bail right now. He favors “restorative justice” as an alternative to imprisonment. New Jersey and one Red State, Alaska, has a weaker version of the New York cash bail law.

Abolishing cash bail for the GOP is what former Chicago White Sox announcer Ken “Hawk” Harrelson would call a “get-me-over-fastball.” In other words, it’s a gift basket of a pitch that ends up as a home run.

Trump should pursue maintaining cash bail as a campaign issue. But even more so, because law enforcement is primarily a local issue, down-ballot Republicans should do so too.

After all, as I’ve noted many times, the most important duty of any responsible government is to protect its citizens from invaders and criminals.

John Ruberry regularly blogs at Marathon Pundit.

“Beyond Normal” “Running on the Economy” “peace and security” “congressional approval” “we become morons” Under the Fedora

Because I have a busted shoulder and am currently on disability instead of doing my share to advance Christmas eCommerce, I am watching a Democrat debate.

It simply amazes me that people think these folks are serious and there was a lot of stupid on that stage but I want to point out just a few things that were said by various candidate in particular that were, well….interesting

Joe Biden: “We have to move beyond normal”

This was in response to how to win republicans back in a post Trump era. It has to be one of the silliest things I’ve ever heard. If I was Team Trump I would be making fun of that line for the rest of the campaign and in a debate with any democrat I’d ask how many genders they are.


Tom Steyer: “Trump is going to run on the Economy”

There was a question asked about how the Democrat field will deal with the economy. Every single democrat then went on and on about how bad the economy actually is for the majority of people. Yet Tom Steyer stated bluntly that Donald Trump is going to run on the economy.

If the economy is so bad, and the majority of voters know it, why on earth would Trump run on the economy?

To ask the question is to answer it.


Bernie Sanders: ” Israel has the right not only to exist, but to exist in peace and security”

Now in fairness of all of the statements that were said on the stage this is one of the sanest and most rational things said, but the revealing moment was the reaction to those words.

The night was full of loud applause to the words of candidate but of all the audience reactions of the night the most significant was the single solitary lonely clap that was heard in the audience when these words were said.

If you are a Jewish Democrat who supports Israel that should speak volumes


Joe Biden: “you had to have Congressional approval.”

Joe Biden was asked why Gitmo was not closed during the Obama years and he quickly pivoted toward Israel, but before he did he stated that to close gitmo “you had to have Congressional approval”

In 2008 a new congress was elected with Barack Obama and Joe Biden, that congress gave the Democrats majority in the house of 256-178. In the Senate they had the majority of 55-41 with two independents who caucused with the Democrats and that number at once point was 60-40.

That being the case how can Biden claim that congress was to blame for Gitmo not being closed?


Andrew Yang: “If you get too many men alone and leave us alone for a while, we kind of become morons”

It’s often commented that there is a gender gap between men and women in elections with men favoring the GOP and women favoring Democrats. If you want to know why just look at this response to the question concerning President Obama’s statement about how much better the world would be if women were running it.

The obvious statement that calling half the electoral population a bunch of morons is a bad idea when you want to win an election but it’s worth noting that Donald Trump did better than Hillary Clinton among Married couples.

Married couples would include a mother and a father and likely a son or two. I suspect that a lot of mothers don’t appreciate having some stranger tell her their fathers, or husbands or sons are a bunch of morons.

This type of thing might play with the Democrat Debate audience but it’s not going to play with the general public outside liberal universities.


In fairness only one of the Democrat nominees will be running for President ( I say it will be Biden on the 2nd ballot) and the great saving grace for the Democrats is that most of the voters they need to win in 2020 were not watching. But if I was the Trump Presidential campaign I would be tagging this entire field with all of these statements and dare them to run away from it.

Morning After Impeachment Thoughts Under the Fedora

Rhett Butler: With enough courage, you can do without a reputation.

Gone With the Wind 1939

Based on the reactions of some of the facebook friends of my son last night, a not inconsiderable number of people on the left and abroad are going to wake up this morning and be completely surprised that Donald Trump remains the current president of the United States of America with all the power and prerogatives of the office that he holds still intact.

While I deplore the commentary this is on our educational system a mere twenty years after Bill Clinton’s impeachment as a very vocal Trump supporter in an extremely blue state where even the establishment GOP is not on the side of the angels I confess that am going to enjoy quite a bit of schadenfreude when the reality of that fallacy hits these fools and frankly that feeling will be multiplied as the President not only ignores impeachment but weaponizes it against his foes to defeat them.

I must admit I did not anticipate how much fun this is going to be.


Vincent LaGuardia Gambini: Hey Stan, you’re in Ala-F***in-Bama. You come from New York. You killed a good old boy. There is no way this is not going to trial.

My Cousin Vinny 1992

There were quite a few people on the right who till the very end were convinced that this would not happen because Pelosi would not be this suicidal politically. Yesterday’s vote was a reminder of what I wrote a bit ago that this vote wasn’t about protecting newly elected Democrats in swing districts from primary challenges, it was about protecting longtime house members in “safe” districts from primary challenges. Pelosi wasn’t protecting her majority, she was projecting her leadership team from the violent left that is now their base.


Bill McKay: What do we do now?

The Candidate 1972

There is a real sense that the Democrats are pretty much making it up as they go along and nothing illustrates this better than the elevation of the “Impeach but don’t sent it to the Senate” plan what went from wild speculation a week ago to a threat by Pelsoi’s after impeachment last night.

As I’ve already written this gives the lie to the urgency of impeachment but stresses the point made above that the urgency was for the violent Democrat base to see Democrats had in fact vote for impeachment. I’m sure that focus groups are now being formed and such groups may find that now that they’ve had their vote those same angry activists might INSIST that Pelosi not send impeachment to the Senate to avoid on the record acquittal. All of this is uncharted territory for the left and it’s going to be a great source of income for political consultants for the next six months.


No plan of operations extends with certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy’s main strength.

Helmuth von Moltke

Several other side effects of this decision to delay sending impeachment to the senate instantly come to mind:

  • If a vacancy appears in the SCOTUS and the Senate is about to vote on a Trump nominee don’t be surprised if Nancy & Company choose that moment to send impeachment over to the senate in order to delay consideration of any such nominee.
  • Any delay of more than a few days gives an awful lot of cover to the GOP in terms of voting for a motion to dismiss on the grounds that if the House impeachment was a serious exercise it would have delayed sending the case over.
  • Every day that the House delays sending Impeachment to the senate is a day that impeachment remains an issue in a house race and increases the likelihood that in a congressional debate incumbent democrats will be attacked or questioned over it.
  • It’s completely possible that the House might NEVER send impeachment to the senate and thus it will die at the end of the congress unless by some miracle Donald Trump loses re-election. At that point such a vote in the senate would be of interest only to see if there are 20 Senate Republicans who want a President Pence for two to three weeks.

Isoroku Yamamoto: I fear all we have done is awaken a sleeping Giant and fill him with a terrible resolve.

Tora Tora Tora 1970

At Legal Insurrection William Jacobson noted the contrast between the so called somber house vote and the Trump Rally in the swing state of Michigan:

Trump seems energized, and as do his supporters I encounter. I think Democrats will rue the day they forced this impeachment through the House.

I watched that rally, he in energized, the crowd is energized and the entire GOP base simply can’t wait to vote in November. This is Pearl Harbor for the Democrats without sinking a single battleship.


Batman: No Joker. You’re playing the wrong game. The old game. Tonight you’re taking no hostages. Tonight I’m taking no prisoners.

Batman the Dark Knight Returns #3 1986

Finally and ironically, the biggest losers of impeachment will be the House of Representatives and the media. Both have played this up as something serious and devastating and the end result seems to be as potent as a eunuch in a harem. While not the final nail in the coffin of the media this is going to weaken it to the point where ironically the only people it will be able to intimidate are those on their own side. Furthermore the threat of a political impeachment in the future is not going to be taken seriously by anyone with 40+ guaranteed votes in the Senate.

Nothing increases my respect for the founding fathers wisdom more then the fact that they anticipated all of this centuries before it happened and planned accordingly.

Some might say that the bad news here is that an actually corrupt President will recognize this and act accordingly but I submit and suggest that nightmare scenario already took place during the Clinton years.

Trump impeachment leads my list of recent legendary flops

By John Ruberry

Here’s a list of great flops in recent times. Feel free to add your own in the comments section.

Here we go.

Trump impeachment.
Battlefield Earth movie.
The XFL. (Yes, a revival is planned.)
Jussie Smollett’s hate crime.
Joe Walsh’s Republican primary challenge against Trump, as well as those of William Weld and Mark Sanford.
New Coke.
Cop Rock TV show.
Watermelon-flavored Oreos.
Heaven’s Gate movie.
Bernie Madoff.
Jar Jar Binks.
The Cleveland Browns firing Bill Belichick.
ESPN becoming woke.
Theresa May’s call for a snap parliamentary election in 2017.
Cheetos lip balm.
Paris Hilton.
The Big Ten conference inviting Rutgers to join.
Anything related to Anna Nicole Smith.
Mars Needs Moms movie.
Manimal TV show.
Jeremy Corbin’s term as head of the Labour Party.
Pontiac Aztek.
The San Diego Chargers move to Los Angeles.
Beto O’Rourke’s presidential campaign, “I was born to be in it.”
Google Glass.
CNN’s decision to become the impeachment network.
Rosie O’Donnell on The View.
Michael Avenatti’s presidential run.
Enron.
Motorola Rokr phone. (I was given one of these by my employer at the time. It was truly a dreadful device.)
Heinz purple ketchup.

Now some of these debacles can also double as hoaxes, such as the “racist assault on Smollett. And of course the impeachment of Trump, which of course is stumbling along despite the lack of evidence that a crime was committed.

Witch-hunter in chief in the House, Adam Schiff, dabbles in screenplay writing. Perhaps a Schiff-scripted movie might make it on a future list.

John Ruberry regularly blogs at Marathon Pundit.

Jeff Van Drew Solves the no win problem for Trump District Democrats on Impeachment

When I started writing this post is was going to be with the following premise: While it is a wise political move to put pressure on swing state Trump district Democrats to suggest that voting for impeachment will be against their political health, the entire premise of that argument is wrong because they were in a no-win situation.

If they vote for impeachment of course they anger voters in their Trump supporting districts who think it’s a sham or might be enjoying their best economic situation in a decade and thus risk their seat in a general election but if they oppose impeachment and embarrass the Democrat party, they are sure to draw a successful primary challenge not only because a 1st term member of congress is as a rule vulnerable but the ANTIFA loving Trump hating fanatics are frankly the most motivated of Democrat voters and such folks would likely draw huge war chest to destroy them.

Moreover that vote would not endear you to the GOP who will simply argue that being part of Pelosi’s majority enabled the whole crooked impeachment business anyway.

So in my mind while you might make some hay out of such pressure I thought it wasn’t likely to work because there was no upside for a Democrat in such a situation so such Democrats might as well stand pat.

Well apparently there is a third option that frankly I hadn’t thought of but Democrat congress Jeff Van Drew did:

Impeachment is already backfiring on the Democrats even before the full House votes on two articles of impeachment. A Democratic member of Congress is preparing to switch parties, joining Republicans amid the Democrat-led impeachment effort that has put dozens of moderate Democrats in a tough position with their Trump-supporting constituents. 

Representative Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey has been in talks with top advisors for President Trump, according to The New York Times. Mr. Van Drew is concerned about losing his seat in the Democratic primary or in the 2020 general election. Van Drew’s district is a traditionally Republican district that voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election. 

While there is a value in having a sitting Democrat vote against impeachment, there is a greater value for the GOP for a congressman to switch parties over the vote. It’s true that the Democrats would go all in to defeat him but given that activists would primary him and punish him for it anyway it a wise political move.

Suddenly instead of the GOP trying to beat him no matter how he votes and ad after add linking him to the squad, he suddenly becomes a rock star of the party. Money will pour in. The party in general and the White House in particular will go all in to protect and support him. I’d be shocked if Trump didn’t turn up himself to campaign for him in his district. Furthermore as very few new GOP congressmen were elected in the house last time around, if he wins re-election he’ll have two years seniority over any GOP candidate who wins a seat on the President’s coattails in 2020.

I must confess I didn’t anticipate this move. It will be a shock to the Democrat political system , and if others Democrats on the fence realize that this is likely their best chance on re-election Van Drew might not be alone.

Then it would become an earthquake!

Exit question: How much do you think the British Election results had on his decision.

More British Election Thoughts

Map Via The Telegraph, comments via me

Looking at the map of the Results of the British Election is a lot like looking at a Map of the US election of Donald Trump in that the left does better in the urban areas where the elites dwell and the right in the more rural areas where you know the food that the urbanites eat come from.


It worth also noting from the map that there are several nationalist movements going on. In Scotland the Scottish National party picked up 13 seats. Most of those SNP seats would have gone labor. I guess most of the conservative Scots were the ones who came here.

In Ireland the primary division remains the Democratic Unionists (conservatives) who want to stay in the UK and those who want out Sinn Fein (Socialists) who while winning seats in parliament refuse to attend or vote. 3 seats went to two minor parties 2 going to the Social Democrat & Labor party and one to the Alliance Party (Moderate liberals)

In Wales the Plaid Cynru or Welsh Nationalists (more socialists) have four seats but unlike Ireland and Scotland the vast majority of seats in the area remain divided between the two major parties with Labor having the advantage.


While Labor was clearly the biggest overall loser dropping a solid 20% of their seats (-42 from 245 to 203) including some districts that hadn’t voted conservative in over a century porportionally the liberal democrats did worse dropping from 21 to 11 seats losing nearly half including their party leader who lost in Scotland. The other big loser were minor or uncleared parties which held 50 seats in parliament before this election and now hold only 23 all but two being outside of England proper one being a seat held by the greens and the other being the current speaker of the house’s seat who by law must renounce his party and remain strictly non-partisan. All of the Change UK (a party of disaffected conservative and labor folks) PM failed to be re-elected.

It appears that the Brits figured it was time to actually choose sides.


What’s really significant was the shift in the overall popular vote. While the Conservatives share went up by went up to 43.3% a gain of just over 1 % Labor’s share plummeted by over 7.8% down to 32.2% with the Liberal Democrats picking up 4% in the popular vote while halfing their number of seats in Parliament. Apparently the California syndrome is alive and well in Britain.


It’s worth nothing that a “conservative” in England is a lot different than a conservative in the US. Boris Johnson would likely be at best a RINO or moderate Democrat in the US but he’s the best you can currently get in England at this time.

Or as Mark Steyn put it:

It would be nice to think that the Conservative Party might now think it safe to offer a bit of conservatism. But that would be too much to hope for…

Well, you have to start somewhere.

British Election Thoughts Under the Fedora

As of this moment 12:47 AM the conservatives have 354 seats in parliament up 56 from yesterday and 26 more than they need for a majority without any help while labor is down 40. Yet I’m still hearing labor people in England say now that the conservatives have won they must move left. Socialists, they always sound the same in any country.

Two years ago we saw article after article about how Jeffrey Corbyn was the model for the American left to follow.

Now today leftists are angry when a MSNBC leftist notes after Labor’s crushing defeat that Corbyn ran as an unapologetic leftist.


I’m not an expert on British elections or politicts but I found it interesting that on LBC the channel that I was watching to see the results and on twitter we were seeing things like this:

I remember the same thing being said after 2010 insisting that the Democrats programs were actually popular and that the polling was more important than the actual votes to see what the people thought.

Simply amazing.


In addition to Corbyn the left is blaming Brexit for this result claiming that a lot of Labor votes went to the Brexit party. This may or may not be true as I’m not expert enough to say but I will say this.

Assuming this is correct should we not blame labor and the left for not following the will of the voters who had voted leave. If they had in fact let Brexit happen instead of trying to foil it would not , by their own argument , last night have been different?


Supposedly Boris Johnson is very very unpopular according to what I keep hearing but he is getting a Thatcher like win for the Conservatives and he is doing it, in my opinion, for one reason. He is leading from the front.

That is the common thread between Reagan, Thatcher, Johnson and Trump. They are leaders, who lead and people tend to be willing to follow when a person is willing to lead.


It been fun to watch the left on twitter melt down, similar to what happened when Trump won to wit:

This is exactly what we’re hearing from the American left and I suspect the whole “Vote for me you ignorant racist” campaign slogan will be as effective here as it was there, but of course now that the left has lost it will be insisted by all that it has no reflection on the US election.

I suspect that argument would be quite different if the result was different.


Finally as I said I watched LBC election coverage all night and noticed that while there were a lot of opinions that I disagreed with strongly (particularly the newly defeated left insisting that the newly elected conservatives must move to the left to retain their win) but at least everyone they didn’t sound insane.

This is a nice change from what we regularly see around here.

Impeachment is Happening Here’s how it will likely go

[Watching French Calvary deploy in front of them] Goodyear: What about it John Henry?

John Henry Thomas: Looks like we ourselves got mixed up in somebody’s else’s war.

Christian: Yeah Sure does.

Short Grub: What are we going to do now?

John Henry Thomas: Well that’s already been decided.

The Undefeated 1969

Because of the falling polls and the Wile-E-Coyote nature of impeachment there has been some speculation concerning if Democrats will in fact hold an impeachment vote and instead settle for censure.

Don’t count on it.

To be sure they will give it their best shot, in fact I suspect that the purpose of the scholarly witnesses that are going to be called before the judiciary committee’s primary job is not to justify impeachment but to provide the cover necessary for the Democrat votes against it.

Constitutionally Impeachment is a political process, not a judicial one and “high crimes and misdemeanors” are not defined so, it doesn’t matter if the best the Democrats can do is prove that Donald Trump had a nose bleed on the White House carpet, under the rules the Democrats have the right to impeach him for that if they they want.

Nancy Pelosi knows and understands this which is why she tried so hard to avoid open impeachment, particularly after the Mueller goose egg. But once the process had begun she understands that there is no turning back politically. The question is only the best way to do it.

If the Schiff hearings had moved public opinion it would be easy. She might have grabbed a republican vote or two and presented it , with the media’s help, this as a solemn decision to remove a corrupt leader.

But without limited public support, a booming economy, polls showing that minorities that are vital to the Democrat election plans moving toward Trump she is down to playing the best hand she has in the hopes that the GOP in general or the President in particular make a mistake.

Her best hand is to make the best possible case for “censure” and pol test it among Democrat activists. If somehow after the hearings this week poll results tell them they’ve convinced enough democrat fire-eaters that censure is a valid alternative to impeachment (very unlikely) she will go full bore on a cencure vote with every Democrat and perhaps even a stray republican will take place and the left will declare victory.

This would be the 2nd best case for the Democrats and the 2nd least likely which is to say it ain’t gonna happen because while it’s the party’s smartest move it requires woke activists in the party to see reason and reality.

Good luck there.

Of course there is always the remote possibility that the Democrats actually find something that IS impeachable enough to convince the public it’s worth doing or that the White House does something so egregious as to change the polling on impeachment. That’s the best case scenario for the left and the least likely for the reasons.

  1. If the Democrat/Left/Deep State HAD something of this nature, they would have produced it, or leaked it over the last three years
  2. All the evidence so far suggests that the only impeachable acts that have taken place were the previous administrations attempts to corrupt this election, too much deep state digging might uncover this fact.
  3. President Trump has demonstrated that however the left might paint him, he’s much too savvy to make that kind of mistake.

With God all things are of course possible and if this miracle falls into Nancy Pelosi’s lap she will happily accept it but she’s smart enough to not count on it.

Finally there is the chance that enough Democrats will rebel to force her to abandon impeachment although rather than risk a vote that fails. This isn’t going to happen either. It would be the most destructive result for the left and would practically invite primary opponents or at worst 3rd party challengers on an “Impeach Now!” platform. The Damage to the left from such a result would be worse than anything else.

So what WILL happen? Here is the sequence:

  1. Dems make their best case for censure backed up by their report and the scholars who give them cover for it.
  2. Swing state Dems argue strongly for censure saying that this is where the evidence has taken them.
  3. Pelosi after confirming that the fire-eaters will not settle for censure holds the impeachment vote and passes it with 219 Democrats, not a single one from a swing district. Said vote is delayed as long as feasible to discourage primaries from the left on Swing democrats voting “No”.
  4. Democrats do their best to beg borrow or steal enough votes to keep Election 2020 from becoming an electoral disaster and/or hope some event (say Ginsberg’s death) takes place that galvanizes Democrats to the point where they can pull it off.

This is how I see it happening, it’s basically their 2012 Obamacare strategy which was able to work because:

  1. Black votes couldn’t bear the thought of the 1st black president failing to be re-elected
  2. Race trumped faith among Black Christians
  3. The GOP managed to nominate the weakest candidate in their field one that not had pushed for a state version of Obamacare (that I’m still living under) but was unwilling or unable to fight back against anyone but his own base.

Alas for them this time they have a candidate that not only has a strong economy and has proactively reached out to minority Democrat voters but one that is willing to fight back relentlessly.

Bottom line, the Democrats have dealt themselves a bad hand but will play it out the best they can and hope they get lucky. That’s the smartest political move they have left and whatever else you might say about Nancy Pelosi, you can count on her to play the best hand she has, with the media’s help of course.

Update: After Wednesday’s clown car weaponizing the 1st Lady Pelosi has apparently decided to fast track this to minimize the chance of her team providing any more ad material for the GOP in the hearings.

She wants this over and done.