Expectations Revisited Patriots Sans Brady:

In Yesterday’s post I measured, with one game left in the NFL season Brady vs the expectations game to this point, now let’s look at the Patriots:

As I wrote at the time the Patriots pre-Brady:

  • Had a winning record 55% of the time
  • won 11 or more game (10 in a 14 game season) 14.6% of the time
  • won their division 12% of the time
  • made the playoffs 24% of the time
  • won a playoff game 9.7% of the time
  • went to a championship game 7% of the time winning 0%

While the Patriots with Brady:

  • Had a winning record 100% of the time
  • The Patriots won at least 12 games 70% of the time
  • The Patriots won their division & made the playoffs 90% of the time
  • The Patriots won at LEAST one playoff game 70% of the time
  • The Patriots went to the Superbowl 50% of the time
  • The Patriots WON the superbowl 30% of the time (67% of the times they went)

Given those facts combined with the fact that the worst season of the Brady Era was a 9-7 record I set the bottom of the expectations barrel for an OK season being 9-7 a winning record,

However as many people argued for years that Brady’s success was due to Bill Belichck now considered by many the best coach of all time. Many of the anti-Brady crowd gave him a lot of credit for that success so I adjusted these expectations up two games to 11-5 figuring if a good coach can make a one game difference the greatest coach of all time should at least be able to manage to put an extra win or two out of his hat. After all the were only 3 Brady years that they failed to win at least 11.

Instead the Patriots go into this weekend not only eliminated from the playoffs for the 1st time since Brady’s injury kept him out for a season but fighting for the chance, the chance mind you to finish .500 for the season.

This makes the Bill Belichick Era going into today’s game a 24-34 as the coach of the New England Patriots in games not started by Tom Brady and in the three seasons that he coached the team sans Brady he made the playoffs….nearly once.

My expectations scale was “fire the bum” if he failed to win at least 11 but given the Covid situation that while effecting all teams hit his team hard I’d give him another season’s leeway, particularly if he can manage to make .500. If not I think we can safely say that the question of Bill vs Tom in terms of credit has been answered conclusively.

Closing thought #1: It’s worth noting that New England not only missed the playoffs but did so in a year with an extra playoff spot while going into their final three games holding the tiebreakers against all the teams ahead of them..

Closing Thought #2 The biggest difference has been the expectations game. During the Brady era the expectations of the sports fans and sports radio in Boston was “Patriots Win” except for that playoff game in KC (That Brady Still won) Does anyone really think that this team wouldn’t have at least 10 wins and be heading at worst to a wild card game if they had Brady under center this year?

Closing thought #3: For all this critique let’s remember that with a good starting QB with a long term contract in hand Belichick with that 199th pick still saw what every other GM in the league, including those without a good QB signed long term, didn’t.

Brady vs the Expectations game revisited

With one exception I’ve had little use for the new Woke NFL this season. As you may or may not know I’ve never been a huge football fan, but I’ve been a fan of three players in my lifetime. The 1st of Steve Grogan who I thought was the toughest player to ever play QB and the 2nd was his favorite receiver Stanley Morgan.

The 3rd is Tom Brady, who single handedly turned around the Boston Sports scene. His success forced the other franchises to get serious about winning. During his time in Boston 12 championships came here, six of them won by him but every major franchise won at least one title (Ironically just as Brady won as many titles as all the major franchise combined his three losses in title game also equals all the other Boston franchise during that time).

While I’ve tuned out the woke NFL I’ve kept tabs on Brady. He’s hated by many in the media/ Left as a Trump friend, although not vocal on it, but it’s no coincidence that Tampa Bay’s is the one franchises whose ratings have been consistently up.

So let’s revisit my expectations for Tampa this season. In their pre-Brady era Tampa Bay:

  • Had a winning record 30% of the time (13 seasons)
  • Won 11 or more games 7% of the time (3 seasons 1999,2002,2005)
  • Won their division 12% of the time (1970,1981, 1999,2002,2005,2007)
  • Made the playoffs 23% of the time (10 seasons)
  • Won at least 1 playoff game 9% of the time (1979,1997,1999,2002)
  • Won the Superbowl 2% (100% of the times they went 2002)

Meanwhile Tom Brady Patriots during his career has

  • Had a winning record 100% of the time
  • The Patriots won at least 12 games 70% of the time
  • The Patriots won their division & made the playoffs 90% of the time
  • The Patriots won at LEAST one playoff game 70% of the time
  • The Patriots went to the Superbowl 50% of the time
  • The Patriots WON the superbowl 30% of the time (67% of the times they went)

and Brady after Age 40 not counting this season has:

  • Had a winning record 100% of the time
  • Won at least 12 games 67% of the time (at least 11 100%)
  • Won his division 100% of the time
  • Made the playoffs 100% of the time
  • Won at least 1 playoff game 67% of the time
  • Gone to the Superbowl 67% of the time
  • Won the Superbowl 33% of the time

During those three years Tampa Bay has

  • Had a losing record 100% of the time
  • Missed the playoffs 100% of the time

We now however have Tom Brady both at age 43 and without Bill Belichick in a division with a Saints team run by the man who he has been fighting for the all time lead in TD’s.

So How is Tom Brady doing at age 43 at the end of a long season.. Well Brady went into yesterday’s game with a chance to send the Bucks to their first post season since 2007. Here’s what he did:

And that’s just in the 1st half.

Bottom line the worst Tampa Bay can do is a 10-6 record and a date with Seattle in the 1st round of the playoffs. Their best case scenario is an 11-5 record and a trip to face the former Redskins.

I set my expectations for Tampa based on three season suggesting they should:

  1. Tampa Bay Should expect to have a winning record 100% of the time
  2. Tampa Bay Should expect to win at least 10 games 67% of the time
  3. Tampa Bay Should expect to make the playoffs 67% of the time
  4. Tampa Bay Should expect to win at least one playoff game 67% of the time
  5. They should expect to win their division at least 33% of the time
  6. They should make the NFC Championship game at least once

As of this moment Brady is 1/3 of the way toward #1 and half way home to 2 & 3. He has two more seasons to manage #5 and we’ll see show he does in the playoffs this season to judge 4 & 6.

But as of right now we must conclude the Brady experiment in Tampa Bay is a success

Closing Thought #1: Brady has had at least one senior moment this season (vs Chicago) and frankly the coaching in Tampa Bay has been abysmal. Does anyone doubt for one moment that if Belichick was coaching this team they would be at worst with 11 wins and be in the hunt for the division title and at best with 12 wins and the Saints chasing them?

Closing Thought #2 It’s worth noting that even if the Playoff Schedule was not expanded then the Bucks would have clinched a berth this year and a trip to Washington.

Closing Though #3 With the Woke NFL ratings crashing and burning the league should thank it’s lucky stars for Brady. Their playoff ratings will likely depend on how far he goes. I hope he goes all the way, not only because I like him but it will make all the right people miserable.

McConnell to GOP GA voters: Stay Home! Biden’s Mayfly Voters, Missing the Lede on NFL ratings, A Medical Miracle & a 2A feature Under the Fedora

Given Mitch McConnell’s statement warning GOP senators not to challenge electors and force a senate vote I can’t see any incentive for GOP voters to turn out on January 5th for Kelly Loeffner or David Perdue unless they immediately and publicly vow to challenge said electors on the 6th if elected.

Both candidates should be made to commit to do so before a single conservative consents to vote for them.

Apparently Mitch McConnell would rather be the Senate Minority Leader for at least two years rather be majority leader and have his caucus have to vote to challenge electors in a fraudulent election.

Odd that the Democrats are not pushing for such a challenge by the GOP if it will be so fatal for the party isn’t it?


Joe Biden gave a key speech this week and managed only 52K live viewers watching it.

This is in the middle of a pandemic with people stuck at home after supposedly getting 80 million votes

Apparently the mythical Joe Biden voters who gave him the election are like Mayflies they exist and show activity for one day a year and then disappear.


I found these paragraphs from the WSJ piece on advertisers and the NFL amusing:

But this year, NFL ratings have taken a hit as pandemic-related postponements have pushed some games to less desirable times and the coronavirus has sidelined some star players. Unexpected competition from other sports leagues whose seasons were delayed from earlier in the year also has taken a toll on ratings.

You have to go to paragraph 20 for the journal to get to the actual reason

Much of the ratings drop is attributed to the 2020 presidential election coverage siphoning away viewers and the pandemic’s wreaking havoc on the league. Aside from reschedulings and some sidelined stars, the league has faced a backlash from some fans over its social justice efforts, including its embrace of Black Lives Matter. These factors are compounded by the secular decline of traditional TV viewing, in which ratings have been eroded by the uptick in ad-free streaming services.

Shades of “Only in paragraph on page 107“.


I saw something that made me laugh out loud on twitter yesterday:

Let me introduce you to Vin Gupta Twitter blue check

As you can see Vin is, in addition to a doctor, a NBC news and MSNBC news analyst and he had some big news.

Perhaps he should have also expressed some gratitude on the President who put Operation Warp Speed in place which made it possible.

Of course his gigs on NBC & MSNBC depend on him not doing so. After all “Do no Harm” as a rule for doctors has been replaced by “do no harm to Democrat election prospects”

Unexpectedly of course


Finally As I was writing this post an old tweet of mine from two years ago was retweeted and I found it particularly apt for what might be coming.

If there is a more important reminder to those who would enslave us I can’t think of it. I think it’s also worth pointing out that Democrat efforts to convince such heavily armed people that participating in the Democratic Process of a republic is a waste of time by openly stealing an election is short sighted and dangerous.

What a Difference a Tom Brady or a Donald Trump Makes

I know we aren’t doing much sports around here there days as I haven’t been watching any but I have still been listening to sports talk radio locally on my way to and from work and while I’ve never been a Football Fan I’ve always been a Tom Brady fan and thus I want to make a point concerning him that parallels the President.

The Patriots were 2-4 going into this weekend. The last time the Patriots were 2-4 was in 2000 the year Tom Brady was drafted (they actually started 0-4 and won 2 straight to get to 2-4 on their way to a 5-11 season.

During that season 3rd string quarterback Tom Brady appeared in one game, threw 3 passes and completed one for 6 yards.

The following year he would become the starter after an injury to Drew Bledsoe and the Patriots would not have a losing season again.

If the Patriots had won they would have been 3-4 instead of 2-5

The last time the Patriots were 3-4 this late in the season was October 27th 2002 when the Patriots would lose 24-17 against the Denver Broncos who would be 6-2 after the game. It would be the only time in Tom Brady’s career when he would have a losing record this late in the season. He would win 6 of the final 9 finishing 9-7 (Denver would also go 9-7 losing 5 of their final 8) It would be the only time in Brady’s career as a starter when he would not make the playoffs and the only year (other than the season where Brady went down in week one) of the Brady Era when they would not win their division.

What’s really interesting about this is the fact that many in the sports media were ready to declare that the Patriots would be better off without Brady and a lot of the local sports media were saying the same thing.

Yet now it’s being said that QB Cam Newton problem is that he doesn’t have good players around him. Ironically this was the same situation the Patriots were in last season when Brady went 12-4.

What people seem to not have grasped is that having the greatest player in the history at the game at Quarterback covers an awful lot of sins and has done so for this team for a whole lot of years. That’s why a team can go 12-4 with a batch of 2nd rate players on offence.

Take away that QB and then reality rears it’s head.

Or to put it another way. The Patriots are now 20-24 under Bill Belichick when a Quarterback not named Tom Brady starts for him.

There are Patriots fans who will be voting tomorrow who have no memory of the Pats ever having a losing season and do not grasp how losing an extraordinary man forces reality to set in.

And that Brings us to Donald Trump.

Several things have taken place under Trump that were unimaginable under obama: I’ve listed them in song but here is the list sans music

1.  The tax cut
2.  Destruction of ISIS
3.  Cutting Regulations
4.  Moving the Embassy to Jerusalem
5.  The wall
6.  The Space force
7.  VA choice for veterans
8  New trade deals with China
9.  Stock Market records
10.  Criminal Justice reform
11.  New deal with Canada and Mexico
12.  The US becoming energy self sufficient 
13.  Funding Black colleges for multi years vs a single year
14.  Three peace deals between Israel & arab states (so far)
15.  A bunch of COVID relief bills 
16.  Negotiations with North Korea

And remember Trump did this with 2 years of Nancy Pelosi obstructing him at every chance, when Biden brought up GOP control as a reason why the Obama admin did less Trump pointed out “sometimes you have to talk them into it.

With lightbringer Obama none of those things were considered possible, with Trump these things are now part of the public record.

Donald Trump is the Tom Brady of the Presidency and I suspect that we’ve seen nothing yet.

Quick Under the Fedora Thoughts. If Trump is for it I’m agan it Edition…

Judson: I’m agan it!

Mack: Agan What? You didn’t hear what Daniel said?

Judson: If Daniel said it I’m agan it!

Daniel Boone Ken-Tuck-E 1964

The Atlantic magazine has come out against the Nobel Peace Prize itself

If Donald Trump is for the Peace Prize they’re agan it!


Can we now assume that the Nobel Peace prize for Barack Obama was an affirmative action award?


I think it’s been really something to see the left go on a full defense of what objectively is child porn in their defense of Netflix “Cuties”

If I was Donald Trump I’d direct the AG to investigate if the movies violates US child porn laws as written.

The whole: ” If Donald Trump is against Child Porn then I’m for it” reaction from will be something to see, of course in fairness they’re already all defending it. I wonder how fast they would condemn the movie Fatima about the miracles there if Trump came out for it?


Well at least the new peace deal between Barain and Israel is something that Democrats can celebrate. Right?

If Donald Trump is for a peace deal I’m agan it!


There has been another ambush of law enforcement and the Joe Biden Voters are acting like…Joe Biden voters

I’m sure they’re just getting ahead of the President’s condemnation of this act of terror to be agan what he’s for.


Apparently at least one NFL player has figured it out:

After watching Thursday’s game and also watching the Dolphins players’ video, it shows that it is not about who is standing or who is kneeling for the anthem,” Mayfield said. “But instead, coming together and taking action to create real change. Also after reading many letters and messages over the past few weeks, I have been showed (sic) that a gesture such as kneeling will only create more division or discussion about the gesture, rather than be a solution towards our country’s problems at hand. With that being said, I am choosing to stand for both anthems to show respect, love, and unity to everybody involved.”

Trump will obviously be for this so as you might guess the left is agan it but I suspect those who have invested in him as an advertising spokesman are for it. The real question is this: Given that the Ravens are expected to be blitzing a lot will his offensive line be for it or agan it?

DaTechGuy off DaRadio NFL to fans “Pay to Watch our Protest” edition, Plus my 9/11 thoughts SPECIAL TIME 11 AM EST

Today DaTechGuy off DaRadio comes at a special earlier time 11 AM EST vs our normal 3 PM EST.

This is because due to the horrible Trump economy the volume at my evening job is so high that not only were we asked to come in early Wednesday and Thursday to help keep up but we’ve been asked to come in on our day off for an extra shift.

Today we’re going to talk about the opening of the NFL season and the outrage from democrats and sports media that fans didn’t want to be charged money to watch a protest. We’ll also touch on 9/11 and to be sure I’ll comment on the election and the Trump economy that’s forcing me to push up the podcast 4 hours today.

You can watch the podcast live here. As usual last week’s podcast is a place holder till about 5 or 10 min before I start:

As always if you like the podcast please give it a thumbs up.

Odd favor to ask / repeat

Apparently the replacement wiper motor compatible with my 1999 Buick LeSabre available to my mechanic don’t have a pulse board which regulates where they stop (those usually come with such moters)

He’s been unable to find one and thanks to the rules of inspection in MA unless I get that replaced by the end of next month my car will fail inspection and I’ll need to buy a new one

So rather than a bleg for the 4 grand for a new used car I’m blegging for a pulse board for a 1999 Buick LeSabre or a working wiper motor for a 1999 Buick LeSabre with a pulse board on. If you have one I’d be happy to buy it.

Five One Liners Under Other People’s Fedoras Kurt Schlichter, Don Surber, Right Wing Granny, Victory Girls Blog and Baldilocks and one from me.

Michael Forest Reinoehl has now proved, without a shadow of a doubt, that when wanted for crimes of violence or any other the Rittenhouse methodTM of not getting shot by police is the way to go.


Let’s put the awkward issues of logistics aside and talk tactics, though professionals always think logistics while amateurs only think tactics.

Via Town Hall

As a general rule you should always read Kurt Schlichter, he’s smart, he’s funny, and he tears apart the left but this is the most informative piece he’s ever written


FINALLY, a reader emailed, “Hi Don. A few weeks ago I realized that BLM stands for Bitter Little Marxists

Via Don Surber

Analysis True.


 NFL shouldn’t be propping up a criminal rapist when the organization itself has a domestic violence problem.

Via Victory Girls Blog

Actually given the criminal and domestic violence history in the NFL it’s actually pretty on brand.


 Voters should not be deprived of their constitutional right to vote nor should their vote be cancelled by an illegally cast vote.

Via Right Wing Granny

Since the day after the election of 2016 I’ve been saying Trump needs to go after voter fraud.


Can anyone deny that all the terrible things we’ve seen this year have supernatural sources? Well, I suppose they could, but I adamantly disagree.

Via Baldilocks

I think the Democrat/Antifa/Media Marxist left aren’t the real enemy, they just work for him.

DaTechGuy off DaRadio Livestream 49 Black Lives that Didn’t Matter to the NBA Edition 3 PM EST

Today on DaTechGuy off DaRadio we’re going to have a lot to talk about the topics so far

  1. the 49 Black Lives that didn’t matter to the NBA/NFL/NHL & MLB enough to boycott anything
  2. The Rittenhouse Method of not getting shot by police.
  3. Riots Outside the White House house grounds vs Ave Maria inside White House
  4. Pat Austin on the 1st week of Covid School in practice.

It will all be here at DaTechGuy off DaRadio, you can watch it here at 3 PM EST (the placeholder is last week’s show)

Hope to see you there.

fyi I’ll be a guest on Fault Lines radio in DC and KC this Thursday between 9 & 10 EST talking election, RNC and more

DaTechGuy off DaRadio Secession Back in town edition

Today on DaTechGuy off DaRadio we have several interesting things to talk about

  1. The return of Secession as a Democrat election strategy
  2. Sports ratings for the new woke seasons of #bidenball
  3. Black “diversity” and Systemic Racism, reality vs Bidentalk

It all starts at 3 pm EST today you can watch the livestream here.

Hope you enjoy it

What if we applied the left’s Woke Rules to the NBA & NFL Rosters?

I could understand Cobb. Ty Cobb had what the black ballplayer had. The black ballplayer had to get out of the cotton field. He had to get out of the celery fields, and this was a vehicle to get him out. This was the same thing with Cobb. Cobb had to get out of Georgia. He had to fight his way out and this was why he had this great competitive spirit. And so what he’s saying against blacks was the same thing that I think every poor white man had against blacks. Because we were competition to him. 

Buck O’Neil

The left keeps insisting that we have to be hiring based on race in everything from police to orchestras so they “better reflect the communities they serve”.

What if we did this to the NBA & NFL or even MLB?

Think about that for a second.

The reason why breaking the color line in baseball was wrong wasn’t because a “black” men per se were being excluded from the game, it was because baseball players who were as good or better than the current players on the field were excluded that’s a big deal in baseball as Buck O’Neil the great Negro league player and manager put it:

For Jackie to play in the major leagues, that meant that one white boy wasn’t going to play. We had played against these fellas and they knew that we could play. And they knew if we were allowed to play, a lot of them wouldn’t play. See?

By an odd coincidence as the final teams in the league integrated and the white population of the league dropped to 82% in 1961 expansion in MLB took place with two teams added in 1961 and 1962 meaning there were 100 new major league jobs to the system and in 1968 when the white population of the league was down to 73% expansion happened again and another 4 teams (and 100 jobs) were created. (Note non-black “latinos” were not excluded from the majors but at 0.7% of the league the year Jackie Robinson debuted they constituted a nominal figure of about 4 players over a 16 team league)

Around this time Football began to overtake baseball in popularity and accordingly the best black athletes began migrating to that sport and as Basketball increased in popularity again black athletes moved in that direction in a big way.

in 2017 only 28% of the NFL was white and nearly 70% of the league is black (with Latinos and Asians at less than 2%)

In the NBA for 2017 the figures are similar with a slightly smaller white population (20%) a slightly larger Latino population about 5% and over 70% of the league consisting of black players.

Oddly I don’t hear anyone arguing that since the black population is about 12% that whites are unfairly underrepresented in the NBA or the NFL. We don’t see people insisting that that cause for this discrepancy is “systematic racism” Yet the same people who scream that because the number of black coaches is closer to the actual black population of this country as opposed to the percentage of blacks in the league don’t find it odd that those same coaches and the front offices seem to be signing black players way out of disproportion to white ones.

The simple fact is this. We have, thanks to the efforts of actual civil rights leaders (as opposed to the demagogues of today) reached a point where the primary question as to the signing of a defensive back or a wide receiver or a quarterback or a center in the NBA or a center fielder is the skill set of said player rather than their race (and occasionally the price see Cam Newton NE Patriots).

This is as it should be.

So when the racial demagogues start demanding quotas in all kinds of fields tell them you’ll consider it as soon as those same demographic quotas are applied to the high paying jobs in the NFL/NBA & MLB

Two closing thoughts:

As of 2016 the Demographics of MLB are 63.7% White, 27.4 % “Latino” 6.7% black (lowest since 1957) and 2.1% Asian. However I suspect this reflects black athletes gravitating more toward the NBA & NFL. I don’t know why black players are less interested in MLB as it’s a much better game and I would further submit and suggest that with guaranteed money, longer careers and less prospect of serious injury it’s a better choice and smarter choices for the best athletes out there. Plus you don’t have to play in the rain or freezing conditions but it’s not my call.

I haven’t included the NHL in these figures because while the NHL integrated in 1958 with Willie O’Ree joining the Boston Bruins (Ironically the Bruins integrated before the Red Sox) and while we’ve seen black superstars (HOF goalie Grant Fuhr who played from 1981-2000 comes instantly to mind) there just doesn’t seem to be the same interest in the game among the black athletes or the black community which more than anything else is the reason for the 90% white demographic of the league.