Quick Post Qassim Soleimani thoughts Update the Mullahs Tweet More Updates: McCain, McGowan etc etc More updates Trump & Reynolds

UPDATE: This twitter exchange has to go to the top

I don’t think they’ve gotten over the shock of an American leader actually fighting back.

Oh and let’s also quote the Elder of Ziyon who knows the region better than me:

First of all, the so-called experts have been wrong every single time they predicted a major response from things Trump decided to do. The “experts” simply aren’t.

My guess is that Iran will instruct Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad to shoot rockets into Israel, even though there is no evidence that Israel had anything to do with this (excellent intel, by the way.) This is a face-saving routine and Iran still clings to the idea that escalating things with Israel will get the Muslim world on their side. That isn’t true anymore, but this might be Iran’s thinking. (Israel closed the ski resort in Mount Hermon anticipating this very scenario.)

Not only Soleimani was killed – also Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy commander of Iran-backed militias  Popular Mobilization Forces, and reportedly  Naeem Qasm, Hezbollah’s #2 in Lebanon. You have to think that the remaining leaders of Iranian forces and proxy forces are very frightened of being killed themselves. If they escalate, that is a death sentence. I don’t think they are that brave…I cannot see the Revolutionary Guards’ morale remaining high with the loss of their powerful leader and their countrymen, probably, celebrating.

I do expect a response – Iran is still an honor/shame society and some action, now that the US admitted its role, is deemed necessary. But I think it will be a limited response. Perhaps cyberattacks, perhaps  rockets to Israel as I mentioned, perhaps some directed attacks at US troops in Iraq or a 1983 Beirut-style attack against US military installations in Europe.

Today, lots of very dangerous people are very scared. Hezbollah leader Nasrallah is going deeper underground than he already was. Maybe even Kim Jong-Un.

The US of World War 2 is back and God have mercy on our enemies because apparently Donald Trump won’t


Twitter is ablaze with activity with President Trump taking out Soleimani & friends yesterday. Here are several things that come to mind at once:

You might think that you’d have the Mullah’s on the air issuing threats and I’m sure they will do so, as soon as they can relocate to safe secure bunkers out of the reach of drones.

The Iranian leadership has been given notice that from this point on , if there is an attack on a US embassy, none of them are safe.


It took almost no time for the usual suspects to get organized. Max Blumenthal & company announced their protests at once on twitter, I replied with a question

The left has never seen a killer of US troops that they didn’t like.


In one respect the confusion this has created in Iran is understandable, for decades we have allowed them to kill Americans and strike at our interests with impunity even when we had armies to the east west and south of them.

The concept that the US might actually decide to strike back when attacked is the one thing that they never in their lives expected.

Of course up until the Carter years the idea that one could attack a US embassy with impunity would have been laughed at and as recent as 1970 such retaliation by a US president against a terrorist would not have caused Americans to bat an eyelash.

Of course that was before the left started to get control in the schools


The real problem for Iran is the unrest that is currently going on in their country. The leaders needs to be visable and proactive to keep it from boiling over into a successful revolution but at the same time if they are visible any attempt to kill Americans by Iran will mean a drone will be on them in a moment.

This is likely the best chance we will have to end almost a half century of Iranian terror. That’s the upside. Unfortunately there is no way to know what will replace it, that’s the downside.


The biggest question mark will be our NATO allies currently holding huge populations of pro-terrorist arabs. I suspect most of Europe will do all they can to not choose sides because they are not prepared to deal with the blowback. However if any European nation was looking for an excuse to finally take action to secure their identities, this will be the time. I expect strong support from Poland, Hungary and former Eastern block states. I expect silence or condemnation from Germany & France and the Pope, England is the wild card here.


Politically this is a bad situation for all non-squad members of the left and media. This guy was responsible for the death of thousands of Americans and Iraqis and for terror all over the world so they aren’t likely to condemn his death too loudly if at all, on the other hand they want to make sure that any consequences for this action for ill fall on Trump.

Expect them to start playing the “wag the dog” card pretending that it’s all about impeachment rather than attacks on our embassy.

To some this will be their best chance to energize their base and to defeat Trump. Ironically if the Mullah’s and their allies want to return the US to our former state of impotence without risking their regimes their best shot will be to put all their efforts into helping the Democrats rather than retaliatory strikes. The question is, given their “face” culture do they dare do so?


In the end I have no idea what is going to happen and neither does anyone else, but if I had to bet money on one event over the next 11 months that will come of it I’d bet on a serious Iranian sponsored attempt to assassinate President Trump, most likely via a suicide mission I hope the White House and secret service are prepared for this.


Update 2: Well this didn’t take long, this

and this

shows how lucky we were not to have twitter in December of 1941.


Meanwhile here are some assessment from the same world:

Stacy McCain:

I’m hesitant to predict what comes next. Thursday night, while I was trying to watch the Gator Bowl, “World War 3” was trending on Twitter, and yes, the worst-case scenario is Armageddon. We can’t pretend that the risk of all-out war is non-existent. However, the question is not Iran’s intent — they hate America and want us all dead — but rather Iran’s capacity to turn their intentions into action. We shall see.

Tom Rogan Washington Examiner:

This will also cause short-term strife for U.S. political interests in Iraq. Soleimani and Muhandis represented a powerful bloc of Iranian-aligned interests. But a bloc that was under growing pressure. They’ll now seek to unify erstwhile competitors such as Muqtada al Sadr into punishing America for what has occurred.

Ultimately, however, the U.S. holds the cards here.

If it is willing to tolerate some U.S. casualties, the Trump administration can effectively out-escalate Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s regime and force it into backing down. But while lives have likely been saved by Soleimani’s departure, the near-term future won’t be pretty.

Taking out the trash rarely is.

Paula Boylard PJ Media

 This could get ugly very quickly. In fact, the State Department is already warning Americans to stay away from the U.S. Embassy in Iraq and urging U.S. citizens to leave the country immediately. Americans at home and abroad may very well be at increased risk of a terrorist attack in the coming days and months (and years!).  Let’s hope and pray Trump and the Pentagon have a plan to deal with the aftershocks from Suleimani’s death.

Update 3: POTUS

I put before you life and death, choose wisely.

Glenn Reynolds hit the nail on the head here:

lurking behind all of this is a new reality that the Iranians may not have fully absorbed: Thanks to fracking, the United States doesn’t have to keep the straits of Hormuz open anymore. We only have to be able to keep them closed.

Bingo!

Update: Key words from the Iranian statement:

Khamenei said Iran will honor Soleimani with three days of mourning and announced that the late general’s deputy, Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani, will replace him as Quds Force commander. The terrorist cell’s objectives “will be unchanged from the time of his predecessor,” Khamenei said in a statement reported by Reuters.

In other words the Iranians policy will now be to try to kill Americans, as opposed to their previous policy of trying to kill Americans.

I’m shocked SHOCKED!

Soleimani & al-Muhandis discover Attacking US Embassies During a Trump Administration can be hazardous to your health

A bit over forty years ago our embassy in Iran was seized and our citizens held for nearly two years as hostages with impunity while Jimmy Carter was president.

Eight years ago our embassy in Benghazi was attacked and Americans were killed with impunity while Barack Obama was president.

A few days ago Iranian terrorists attacked our embassy in Iraq and ran away once Donald Trump sent in marines and gunship. They thought that like during the Carter & Obama years they would pay no price.

They were wrong.

Iraqi TV and three Iraqi officials officials said Friday that Iranian Gen. Qassim Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force, has been killed in an airstrike at Baghdad’s international airport.

The officials said the strike also killed Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy commander of Iran-backed militias known as the Popular Mobilization Forces.

the Washington post isn’t happy that a killer of Americans is dead

Perhaps we can tell them they made a Youtube video that insulted Islam.

It’s possible, perhaps even probable that the Iranians commanders in Iraq will try to retaliate, but now those commanders know if they do to make sure their life insurance policies are paid in full because the risk will not just belong to the fanatical foot soldiers.

No Alamo at San Antonio de Benghazi or Rhineland Sequel

Eight years ago, just before an election our embassy was attacked in Benghazi and i wrote the following post on the subject:

Picture that night for a moment, In the end attackers lost 30-60% of their force but for the sake of argument let’s say only 25% of that was in the first wave. You’re attacking the compound, you’ve been attacking for hours and seen people fall all around you. You’ve been beaten back once and don’t actually know how many men are inside, what do you think would have happened if they heard the sound of a single helicopter gunship? A single plane? a single drone dropping a bomb on the force already bloodied at a rate that would cause most Western countries to declare the mission a disaster?

They would have run.

Instead there was no Helicopter gunship, there was no relieving force, there wasn’t even a single remote control bomb in those seven hours after all there is a fundraiser in Vegas to worry about.

The actions of the Obama administration in general and the President and Secretary of State Clinton in particular were a national disgrace, but fully in keeping with the philosophy that American interests in general and Americans lives in particular are not worth fighting for.

Fast forward seven plus years. Suddenly the Iranians are hitting our compound in Iraq. The media is in a frenzy ready to call this Trump’s Benghazi, celebs who support them are practically giddy with excitement at the prospect of embarrassment to President Trump in an election year

But while the media was looking for a Benghazi sequel, the Iranians were looking for a different sequel, they were looking for a Rhineland sequel.

You don’t know about the Rhineland business in 1936? Well in March of 1936 the Germans under a fellow by the name of Adolph Hitler moved their army into the Rhineland in direct opposition to the terms of the Treaty of Versailles, it was an aggressive move, a provocative move and a move that was completely dependent on the French not reacting, as one German officer put it:

“I can tell you that for five days and five nights not one of us closed an eye. We knew that if the French marched, we were done. We had no fortifications, and no army to match the French. If the French had even mobilized, we should have been compelled to retire.”

In fact one officer went so far as to suggest that if the French had intervened there in March of 1936 Hitler would have fallen.

By an odd coincidence the Iranians are having trouble at home and things are a tad shaky The Iranians could sure use a win and according to the international press, America is under the control of an incompetent leader who is in danger of being forced from office, so what better time to push the envelope against a paper power run by an incompetent leader unwilling or unable to fight back.

Alas for the Iranians the source of the reports of Donald Trump’s weakness and incompetence are a unreliable and unfortunately for them along with celebs like Ms. Midler and the media whose reports they rely on President Trump isn’t Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton:

and those choppers didn’t come alone, they came with US Marines:

Do you know what happens when you send Apache Helicopters and US Marines to an embassy that Iranians are attacking? One guess:

All members of paramilitary groups and their supporters who have been protesting against US air strikes in Iraq have withdrawn from the perimeter of the US Embassy in Baghdad on Wednesday, the Iraqi military said.”All protesters have withdrawn, tents dismantled, and other forms of demonstrating that accompanied these protests have ended and the Iraqi security forces have completely secured the embassy perimeter,” it said in a statement.

Or as it was put

And the president weighed in personally:

So instead the Iranians have run, their leaders, like Kim in North Korea are making threats and dismissing the president but actions speak louder than words and right now they know that they aren’t dealing with the pretend version of a president that the MSM has painted for them.

Trump took action and the Iranians are running and the ambassador remains unharmed and the US remains ready to protect our own.

For Iran that’s a disaster, and for the media and Democrats it’s a disaster too.

I’m old enough to remember when wouldn’t be able to say that about the press or Democrats.

Forty years later: the media and the Iran hostage crisis

Forty years ago this week, I traveled to Iran to cover the takeover of the U.S. embassy, an event that embarrassed the United States and the administration of Jimmy Carter.

What isn’t debated on this anniversary is how badly I and the rest of the news media reported what happened.

First, the hostage-takers weren’t “students,” the moniker that still sticks today. A.J. Caschetta, a lecturer at the Rochester Institute of Technology, provides some interesting background.

For example, author Tim Wells interviewed most of the hostages for his oral history, 444 Days: The Hostages Remember (1985). Few called their captors “students,” using various terms: Iraniansradicalsmilitantsterroristsgoonsguardsknuckleheads, turkeys, and assholes.

One of the key leaders of the hostage-takers was Hossein Sheikholeslam, who convened press conferences for the legions of international journalists that flocked to Tehran. But he hadn’t been a student since the early 1970s when he attended the University of California at Berkeley. His proficiency in English also made him suitable to interrogate the hostages. Sheikholeslam “may have been trained in interrogation techniques,” wrote William Daugherty, one of only four CIA officers stationed at the embassy on November 4.

Another ringleader, Mohammad Hashemi, wasn’t a student. He spent his time with friends forming a group called “Muslim Students Following the Imam’s Line,” which gave orders to those who showed up to protest outside the U.S. embassy. They wore laminated photos of Khomeini around their necks and pinned to their jackets.

The hostage-takers “strictly allied with Khomeini and the new mullah establishment,” according to Mark Bowden in Guests of the Ayatollah (2006). As Bowden puts it, they “were all committed to a formal Islamic state and were allied, some of them by family, with the clerical power structure around Khomeini.”

Second, the news media didn’t understand how big the story would become. The foreign editor of Newsweek, where I worked, told me the takeover wouldn’t last more than a day or so. It went on for 444 days!

Newsweek didn’t put the story on the cover until three weeks after the takeover occurred and then only as a part of an overall analysis of the burning of the U.S. embassy in Libya, the Russian influence in the Afghanistan government, and Islamists taking over Mecca.

The U.S. television networks were so unprepared that only one ABC News radio reporter had a valid visa to get into Iran. As a result, ABC had exclusive coverage for several days, laying the groundwork for “America Held Hostage” and then Nightline.

Third, many journalists thought the religious government of Iran had to be better than the Shah. How wrong we were!

I will now say an act of contrition. I hope other reporters do the same.