Society without Police: Insurance Jargon, the BLM Surcharge

Vicar the Reverend Morrison: It’s about this letter you sent me regarding my insurance claim.

Mr. Devious: Oh, yeah, yeah – well, you see, it’s just that we’re not…as yet…totally satisfied with the grounds of your claim.

Vicar the Reverend Morrison: But it says something about filling my mouth in with cement.

Devious: Oh well, that’s just insurance jargon, you know.

Monty Python’s Flying Circus The Buzz Aldrin Show 1970

The latest in a series of post concerning the removal or the de-funding of police departments and the unintended and/or unconsidered consequences thereof.

One of the hidden costs in every product you buy is the cost of insurance.

Every product you buy online, every time you go to a local store, every time you buy a gallon of gas at the pump or eat at a restaurant (although you likely haven’t done that lately) part of the price you are paying for an item or service include that cost that the shipper, the business owner, the manufacturer paid for insurance.

The insurance business is a lot like the casino business in the sense that it’s all about the odds. In life insurance you look at the numbers concerning life expectancy adjusting for factors such as smoking, flying disease and set your rates accordingly (it’s no coincidence that as life expediency went up near the end of last century ads for life insurance without a medical exam for those 50-80 were everywhere). In collision insurance you calculate the number of fender benders you are likely to have to pay out and base your rates on those odds.

When it comes to business property there are many things to consider. How likely is a robbery, how likely a broken window, how likely a fire, how likely a package will be stolen from a stoop after delivery. All of that is figured into the price a business must pay for doing business.

Now take that batch of risks, and add to that the risk of doing business in a city with either no police or a de-funded police department.

How do you factor that into your price?

Well if you are a small business or retailer you might will find the cost of such an increase prohibitive and not even bother to try. What about the big guys?

Well if you are a business like Wal-Mart you can lean on a mayor to make sure she gives you preferential tax treatment or incentives to stay:

“Mayor Lightfoot said she was on a conference call with Walmart and other major retailers that had stores looted or heavily damaged during the unrest in Chicago. She said she pleaded with them to not abandon Chicago.”

Or you might decide it isn’t worth it at all to reopen and move:

Some may shrug at Wyrobek’s declaration and say that it’s just 50 jobs, but Wyrobek isn’t likely to be alone. He just has the distinction of being the first to go public with his decision to leave, and the reasons for doing so. How many business owners in Minneapolis might decide that the risk of a repeat is just too high, and that the track record of city leadership represents a bad risk?

For that matter, some businesses might not have the ability to reopen in place even if rebuilt. Insurance losses in the riots will go over $500 million, and customers in Minneapolis will have higher rates as a result of the suddenly-exposed risk of doing business in the city. For some businesses, that might be too much of a hurdle for reinvesting in the city.

But move or stay the cost of either that lost tax revenue or extra insurance will be passed on to you. But it goes deeper than that.

Let’s say you don’t go to stores, What happens if you are in Chicago or Minneapolis and decide to go all in on Amazon?

Well we’ve already talked about the return of the shotgun driver carrying a real shotgun but lets go one step further.

If the police are unlikely to respond to a truck or UPS truck getting hit how much less likely are they going to worry about porch pirates?

Now if you don’t get your package you might call amazon and they may say that their responsibility ended when it ended when it was delivered or they might consent to replace it, in fact the cost of such a replacement is likely factored into the, but what happens if you live in a city that has no police and / or defunded police and the cost of such replacements become prohibitive?

Well I suspect you will see and extra charge for such cities call it a black lives matter surcharge, assessed to cover packages lost in those cities because nobody is afraid of getting in trouble for taking them.

But let’s go one step further. Let’s say that BLM decides that such a charge is “racist” and that penalizing residents of such cities over it is also racist. In this politically correct world a business might not want to be tagged so.

In that case if you’re amazon you introduce optional “insurance”. For a small fee if your order is lost or stolen then it will be replaced at no further charge, BUT if you don’t select that option Amazon or any other online retailer might elect to take no responsibility for any package once it’s delivered to that address.

Now I’m sure that our friends on the left might not be pleased about paying this likely new surcharge, but that’s OK, with the higher rates they’ll pay for car insurance, homeowners insurance, renters insurance if they don’t own a home and of course the higher rates on loans as if you live in those cities you’re a bad risk, I’m sure they won’t notice a few more dollars paid for a package from Amazon.

Society Without Police: The Return of Riding Shotgun (for real)

One of the advantages of being a man of my age is that you grew up at a time when westerns were rather popular on TV. One of the distinguishing characteristics of the Western was the lack of a police department in all but the biggest cities. That gives those of us who are old enough a reference to a society where you have no police department.

As I suspect a lot of our friends on the left do not have a reference for a society without police as they go all in on the “Defund the Police” business over the next week or so let me illustrate just one of the may consequences that our ignorant at best or idiotic at worst leftists are not considering because they’re well ignorant and/or well IDIOTS.

Likely you have heard the term “Riding Shotgun” which over the last 50 years has meant riding in the front with the driver.

However 150 years ago riding shotgun meant just that.

If you had someone “riding shotgun” that meant that next to the stagecoach driver whose attention had to be on the horses and what passed for roads you would have a 2nd person next to him, armed with a shotgun.

His job was to watch for armed attackers on any stripe. In an age when lawlessness was common and the entire population was acquainted with death as an everyday risk and thanks to a bloody civil war inoculated against horror over the killing of another a shotgun guard would not have too much to worry about if he found it necessary to discharge his weapon at a potential attacker.

Now with the advent of the automobile, quicker travel, communications and of course a regular police force the necessity for additional armed guards for all but the most valuable cargoes (like a brinks truck) became unnecessary. Furthermore as laws have become stricter and death less familiar the risks of discharging a weapon in defense of a cargo have increased and of course the presence of police who can be called in case of trouble makes the risk of going after a lesser cargo not worth the reward.

But the removal or de-funding of police changes that equation.

First of all if you are a thief looking for a quick score , or an addict in need of money for a fix these lesser targets, a UPS truck making deliveries, a Tractor trailer heading for a store, a mail truck delivering packages or even an UBER driver taking a passenger from an event become very inviting. The absence of police, either due to the force being abolished or because limited resources means nobody to respond to a call & even fewer available to follow up on a robbery after the fact.

This means bad news for a delivery driver who will be taking his life into his own hands in such a city. While any individual package might not be worth a lot a UPS Truck with anything near a full load would be worth enough to hit and loot and what isn’t kept for oneself will turn up at a flea market or pawn shop or sold on eBay.

This means a you need a 2nd person in the truck but if there are no police to call or no prospect that any would come a 2nd person would have no function other than to watch the truck get emptied, unless he was armed.

And if you are talking about a tractor trailer making regular delivers which might have tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars of items in tow the necessity of an armed guard ready to shoot exists every single day.

So while there a lot of downsides to the de-funding or departure of the police force on the plus side this will mean literally thousands of job opportunities for those both with steady nerves and the willingness to take a risk as shotgun riders for trailers, and UPS trucks and other cargo, jobs that have not been available in such quantity in a century and a half.

Alas for our friends on the left burdened with student loans who are triggered by a speaker who disagrees with them or who can’t function if the wrong pronoun is used, it’s unlikely that these new jobs will head their way. Much more likely a maga man, familiar with a gun and who knows how and when to use it (or not) will get that job.

I’m sure the sight of such a armed fellow in the delivery truck as it pulls up to their house or apartment building will be a great comfort to those inside.