by Datechguy | February 28th, 2012
If you do EVERYTHING You’ll win
Lyndon Baines Johnson only lost one election, that was a special election for Senate in 1941. Johnson campaigned hard and furious, spent an incredible amount of money, used some brilliant strategy and stole a fair amount of votes in corrupt counties that his allies controlled, but as told by Robert Caro in the first volume of his LBJ magnum opus Lyndon Johnson the Path to Power, Johnson made a rookie mistake. He found himself so confident on election day that he gave permission for some of the counties he controlled to report results early. This telegraphed to the liqueur interests desperate to get Pappy O’Daniel (a prohibitionist) out of the Governor’s mansion, the number of votes they would need to steal in corrupt areas not controlled by Johnson to win.
Johnson would never let anyone out hustle or out steal him again. He ran his future elections by his rule and would know only victory from that point on until the presidential primaries of 1960. W
Which takes us to 2012…
I have stated for quite a while that Obama is going to lose spectacularly and that conservatives should be confident not worried (ride right through them they’re demoralized as hell and all that). In that spirit I was pleased to see Kevin Jackson’s latest post (buy his book) suggesting Obama is panicking.
There are reasons why he should be panicked but looking at his list I have to disagree with Kevin on an important point.
Supporting Super Pacs, launching Spanish Web Sites, the Truth Teams and shifting right are all prudent things. Obama needs the money to win, the Spanish vote is very important (particularly after his dis of the Catholic church), the “Truth Teams” no matter how much they backfire are a logical tactic and shifting right will hurt him very little since the left assumes that any such pronouncements (such as opposition to gay marriage) are lies for public consumption.
Assuming he has the recourse he claims the investment in all these groups is wise, to quote a coach accused of running up a football score
“It’s not my job to stop me from scoring. It’s his,”
So none of those items in my mind constitute panic, they are instead a wise application of LBJ’s election rule.
There is one item on his list that doesn’t just suggest panic, it screams it.
One might argue that Black Americans might not be as motivated as they were in 2008. After all Obama’s re-election would not be nearly as historic as his initial election but even so the launching of African American’s for Obama sends a very interesting signal.
If the black vote was historically more evenly divided then forming such a group might seem prudent, but Democrats routinely take nearly 90% or more of the black vote. If This president feels the need to form an “African Americans for Obama” it is pretty telling.
Let’s do the math, Blacks make up 11% of the population. In 2004 Kerry took 88% of the black vote that accounted for 11% of the total vote. That 9.7% of the popular vote for the democratic candidate vs 1.3% for the GOP. A net 8.4% for the democratic candidate.
In 2008 President Obama took 96% of the black vote that consisted of 13% of the electorate, that adds up to in terms of the popular vote.12.5 vs .5% for the GOP a net of 12% for the Democrats.
The difference between the two is a net 3.6% of the vote. Now in terms of The popular vote 3.6% would still give Obama the edge if all things remain equal to 2008, but all things aren’t equal.
One can rationally assume that even if this president is less popular among the black community than he once was he would still easily outdraw John Kerry among Black voters. So lets say that the president gets 92% of the black vote this time 4 points better than Kerry but three points worse than last time and crunch the numbers.
If the black turnout is 11% the split is 10% Obama vs 1% RomneySantorumGingrichPaul +9% for the dems
If the black turnout is 12% the split is 11% Obama vs 1% RomneySantorumGingrichPaul +10% D
If the black turnout is 13% the split is 12% Obama vs 1% RomneySantorumGingrichPaul +11% D
So Obama would naturally get a +9 to a +11 even if his popularity drops with the black electorate by a full 3 points.
Or alternatively if his popularity doesn’t drop but the black turnout does, what are the numbers
If black turnout drops to 12% at 96% the split is 11.4% to .6% a difference of 10.8
If black turnout drops to 11% at 96% the split is 10.6% vs .4% a difference of 10.2
If black turnout drops to 10% (unlikely) at 96% the split is 9.6% vs .4% a difference of 9.2
Given these figures and estimates at worst the black community will provide a +9% for Obama and at Best +11 a difference on only 1-3 points of a vote that he won by 7.2 points.
Yet given these figures the Obama administration finds the need to invest time and money in a “African-Americans for Obama” organization where the return potential return is from such a venture is miniscule statistically. That suggests one or both of the following:
1. Press reports about the weakness of the current GOP field not withstanding the Obama administration understands the GOP is united in their dislike of his policies and their base, which was largely absent from John McCain’s corner is highly motivated to turn out decreasing the overall impact of the black vote.
2. The rumors of dissatisfaction of the black community with president Obama are not rumors but fact and even the prudent estimates I have given overstates his popularity among African-Americans requiring immediate action to motivate the uninspired and pressure the wavering to make sure Black turnout doesn’t drop.
This means that for all the propaganda driven by the left the Obama administration knows it is in deep trouble and needs every vote it can persuade, browbeat, buy or steal to keep it in office after Jan 20th 2013.
I don’t know what it tells you but I know what it tells me:
Update: Instalanche, thanks Glenn helps me toward that Millionth hit for next month hopefully.