by Datechguy | August 20th, 2012
If you missed this weeks’ DaTechGuy on DaRadio with Josh Trevino you can catch it here.
Update: His first piece at the Guardian was on the Ryan Pick
The NRCC polls in question here did, indeed, yield positive numbers for the Republicans: when the details of the Ryan plan were set against those of the Democratic critique, the former came out ahead by a respectable, though not crushing margin. But the methodology as described seems to provide a poor template for a campaign, depending as it does on well-informed voters making well-considered choices. This may be music to the ears of Boston, which revels in the actuarial appeal and the irrefutable balance sheet; but it may be the same to those of Chicago, which specializes in the gut punch and the emotive appeal.
It’s worth recalling the perhaps apocryphal story of the woman gushing to Adlai Stevenson: “You have the vote of every thinking person.”
“That’s not enough, madam,” he replied. “We need a majority.”
The plain fact is that the Romney-Ryan campaign messaging here is fraught with risk. The trope about entitlements in American politics is that they constitute the “third rail”: untouchable at peril of electoral death. The Republicans aren’t really challenging that. Instead, in the first presidential election since the birth of the Tea Party, they’re casting themselves as the saviors of the federal entitlements state. This is a strange turn of events, and one is hard-pressed to imagine the Democrats not exceeding them in this sphere.
I think Josh is underestimating the American People here, but I’ve already lost one bet to him and owe him a drink so we’ll see.