About that Ohio poll the left is orgasmic about…

by Datechguy | September 10th, 2012

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About that Ohio poll the left is orgasmic about...

You know that poll that shows Obama up by 5.

In all the talk and the gush­ing you don’t see much on the inter­nals, because if you look at them you see sev­eral inter­est­ing things:

First lets look at gen­der, as you know Obama is up with women and down with men, so what was the sam­ple of this poll?

Hold on a sec­ond. it’s axiomatic that Obama is polling bet­ter with women than men, We are run­ning a polls with an 8 point gap in gen­der and call­ing it significant?

let’s look a lit­tle closer How about party affiliation?

Hmm a 4 pt split advan­tage to Democ­rats, how does that square with the actual party split in the state? I’m not a big fan of Wikipedia but it is the quick­est source I could find it shows the demo­graphic split as in Ohio as GOP+1

So in a state that has a 1 pt GOP advan­tage PPP and the MSM is tout­ing a poll with a 4 pt Dem Skew, a five point dif­fer­ence and lo and behold, what hap­pens? Obama is up 5.

But DaT­e­chGuy, you say. “what about the ide­o­log­i­cal split, you didn’t men­tion that, that split favors conservatives.”

I’m glad you brought that up, lets take a look at the self iden­ti­fied conservative/​liberal split of the respondents:

Now that’s kind of odd isn’t it? this crosstab sug­gest that you have a 42% of the peo­ple in the poll self iden­ti­fy­ing them­selves as con­ser­v­a­tive in a poll that is 37% Repub­li­can, yet only 28% call them­selves lib­eral? Are we to believe that ALL of repub­li­cans are Con­ser­v­a­tives with some spill over to the mid­dle or is it more likely that our lib­eral friends, like their fel­lows in the media don’t see their own biases and believe them­selves moderate?

But OK that’s a sup­po­si­tion, not a fact so if this poll is to be believed Rom­ney is polling 3 pts above his con­ser­v­a­tive base yet obama is polling 22 pts above his lib­eral one.

Is there any­one ANY­ONE stu­pid enough to believe that? Are you?

This is the poll the MSM is push­ing. These fig­ures are avail­able to them just as they are to me, why is it that they are treat­ing these Ohio num­bers as Gospel? The answer is in my pre­vi­ous post today from Sarah Hoyt:

How­ever, unless you are going to deny that Journo­list ever existed, that respectable jour­nal­ists engaged to elect Barack Obama despite his deep neg­a­tives by coor­di­nat­ing attacks on any­one who chal­lenged him, you can’t say they don’t con­spire on the pro­pa­ganda front. In fact, that’s all they have.

And let’s not for­get that we’ve seen inter­est­ing inter­pre­ta­tions of Ohio polls before (O+9 vs Rom­ney in Nov 2011 REALLY, the same Obama union lead­ers kept out of their state? dur­ing their referendum.)

The MSM isn’t report­ing to inform you, they are spin­ning to demor­al­ize you and to ener­gize a base that was so inspired by Obama they couldn’t fill the sta­dium in NC they reserved.

Some con­cern tolls might fall for this non­sense, but I’m not for one sec­ond and nei­ther should you.

Update: Sarah Rumpf shows the the offi­cial GOP release on the sub­ject, but I still think the bet­ter argu­ment is to look at the data the left is using because it doesn’t stand up to any scrutiny.

Update 2: Allah­Pun­dit notes a CNN poll get­ting a lot of press that is just as.…interesting:

Speak­ing of which, num­ber two: Rom­ney trails over­all by six points while lead­ing among inde­pen­dents … by 14?

The only way to make those num­bers make sense is if the sam­ple of likely vot­ers skews sharply Demo­c­ra­tic, which seems improb­a­ble, and if the sam­ple of inde­pen­dents here is minus­cule. That wouldn’t be unusual for CNN, if so: Just like last week, it looks like they’re press­ing hard to get self-​identified indies to iden­tify them­selves as lean­ers one way or the other and then reserv­ing the indie col­umn for the few remain­ing “true inde­pen­dents.” With a small enough sam­ple, Rom­ney could the­o­ret­i­cally lead O by 50 points among this group and still trail overall.

Let me point out one basic thing, if the elec­torate would pro­duce the results they wanted you wouldn’t see such inter­est­ing sam­ple gymnastics.

You know that poll that shows Obama up by 5.

In all the talk and the gushing you don’t see much on the internals, because if you look at them you see several interesting things:

First lets look at gender, as you know Obama is up with women and down with men, so what was the sample of this poll?

Hold on a second. it’s axiomatic that Obama is polling better with women than men, We are running a polls with an 8 point gap in gender and calling it significant?

let’s look a little closer How about party affiliation?

Hmm a 4 pt split advantage to Democrats, how does that square with the actual party split in the state? I’m not a big fan of Wikipedia but it is the quickest source I could find it shows the demographic split as in Ohio as GOP+1

So in a state that has a 1 pt GOP advantage PPP and the MSM is touting a poll with a 4 pt Dem Skew, a five point difference and lo and behold, what happens? Obama is up 5.

But DaTechGuy, you say. “what about the ideological split, you didn’t mention that, that split favors conservatives.”

I’m glad you brought that up, lets take a look at the self identified conservative/liberal split of the respondents:

Now that’s kind of odd isn’t it? this crosstab suggest that you have a 42% of the people in the poll self identifying themselves as conservative in a poll that is 37% Republican, yet only 28% call themselves liberal? Are we to believe that ALL of republicans are Conservatives with some spill over to the middle or is it more likely that our liberal friends, like their fellows in the media don’t see their own biases and believe themselves moderate?

But OK that’s a supposition, not a fact so if this poll is to be believed Romney is polling 3 pts above his conservative base yet obama is polling 22 pts above his liberal one.

Is there anyone ANYONE stupid enough to believe that? Are you?

This is the poll the MSM is pushing. These figures are available to them just as they are to me, why is it that they are treating these Ohio numbers as Gospel? The answer is in my previous post today from Sarah Hoyt:

However, unless you are going to deny that Journolist ever existed, that respectable journalists engaged to elect Barack Obama despite his deep negatives by coordinating attacks on anyone who challenged him, you can’t say they don’t conspire on the propaganda front. In fact, that’s all they have.

And let’s not forget that we’ve seen interesting interpretations of Ohio polls before (O+9 vs Romney in Nov 2011 REALLY, the same Obama union leaders kept out of their state? during their referendum.)

The MSM isn’t reporting to inform you, they are spinning to demoralize you and to energize a base that was so inspired by Obama they couldn’t fill the stadium in NC they reserved.

Some concern tolls might fall for this nonsense, but I’m not for one second and neither should you.

Update: Sarah Rumpf shows the the official GOP release on the subject, but I still think the better argument is to look at the data the left is using because it doesn’t stand up to any scrutiny.

Update 2: AllahPundit notes a CNN poll getting a lot of press that is just as….interesting:

Speaking of which, number two: Romney trails overall by six points while leading among independents … by 14?

The only way to make those numbers make sense is if the sample of likely voters skews sharply Democratic, which seems improbable, and if the sample of independents here is minuscule. That wouldn’t be unusual for CNN, if so: Just like last week, it looks like they’re pressing hard to get self-identified indies to identify themselves as leaners one way or the other and then reserving the indie column for the few remaining “true independents.” With a small enough sample, Romney could theoretically lead O by 50 points among this group and still trail overall.

Let me point out one basic thing, if the electorate would produce the results they wanted you wouldn’t see such interesting sample gymnastics.

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