Bacon Panic + Poor Math Skills = Easy Money

Readability

Bacon Panic + Poor Math Skills = Easy Money

Yes­ter­day all over the web and on TV shows every­where (even from sane folks like Jake Tap­per) about the hor­ri­ble ter­ri­ble news that your bacon will be the death of you.

The WHO find­ings were drafted by a panel of 22 inter­na­tional experts who reviewed decades of research on the link between red meat, processed meats and can­cer. The panel reviewed ani­mal exper­i­ments, stud­ies of human diet and health, and cell processes that could explain how red meat might cause cancer.

But the panel’s deci­sion was not unan­i­mous, and by rais­ing lethal con­cerns about a food that anchors count­less Amer­i­can meals, it will be controversial

That’s the Wash­ing­ton Post, at Yahoo they say this:

Each 50-​gram (1.8-ounce) por­tion of processed meat eaten daily increases the risk of col­orec­tal can­cer by 18 per­cent, the agency estimated.

A 50-​gram por­tion would be the equiv­a­lent of eat­ing one hot dog or two slices of bacon. Amer­i­cans eat about 21.7 grams of processed pork per day, accord­ing to a 2011 National Health and Nutri­tion Exam­i­na­tion Survey.

Right now a lot of lawyers are lick­ing their chops and a lot of mem­bers of the food Gestapo are prepar­ing to demand changes in school heath pro­grams, school diets etc etc and I can feel the sheer panic among shop­pers at whole foods from here.

And the rea­son why this is com­ing? Well there are two:

  1. Amer­i­cans are really igno­rant about math
  2. What are the actual odds of get­ting col­orec­tal cancer?

Ques­tion #1 mat­ters because while most peo­ple hear the words “18% increase” and think that their odds of get­ting this dis­ease have gone to bet­ter than 15 the real­ity is that means the odds have gone up 18% from what they actu­ally were. For exam­ple if some­thing has a 1% chance of hap­pen­ing if you increase the chances of that thing hap­pen­ing by 18% the new odds are not 19% as some would think but 1.1% (1÷100) * (118÷100) or 11810000 = 1.1%

And Ques­tion #2 mat­ters because we can’t find out what the actual new odds are for a par­tic­u­lar event until we know what the old odds are, how will we know what num­ber to mul­ti­ply by 118100?

Well the answer to ques­tion 2 is avail­able online at can​cer​.org. Going by their charts men have a life­time risk of devel­op­ing col­orec­tal can­cer of 1 in 21 or 4.84% and the odds of a woman catch­ing the same dis­ease is 4.49 or 1 in 22

So even though we know that accord­ing to the stats given we eat only 43.4% of a hot dog per day on avg let’s assume for the sake of argu­ment that you actu­ally eat a hot­dog every sin­gle day for your entire life. what does that do to your can­cer odds.

Well if you do the actual math and mul­ti­ply 4.84÷100 by 118100 it mans that 18% increase makes a man’s odds of get­ting col­orec­tal can­cer go to 5.7% . For a woman that 4.49÷100 mul­ti­plied by 118100 the woman’s odds go up to 5.2%

In other words, if this study is absolutely pos­i­tively spot on cor­rect eat­ing that hot­dog every sin­gle day for your entire life raises your odds of catch­ing col­orec­tal can­cer by nearly but not quite.…1%.

Or to put it another way if you’re a gamer if you eat that hot­dog a day then your odds of catch­ing col­orec­tal can­cer go from being about the odds of rolling a 1 on a D20 to about the odds of rolling a 1 on a D20.

Now when you put it that way, if you told a guy that giv­ing up bacon decreases your odds of get­ting can­cer by less that 1% most peo­ple would decide those odds aren’t worth pan­ick­ing over and would rightly con­sider such panic as idiotic.

Which is why news­pa­pers that make a liv­ing off of scary click bait, tv shows that make money off of scary click bait, NGO’s that make money off of scary pan­ics, and pols who get big con­tri­bu­tions from NGO’s after they get taxpayer-​funded grants and col­leges who get fund­ing from tax­payer and NGO’s to study these things, and lawyers who make money off of suing suc­cess­fully prof­itable busi­nesses, like for exam­ple the meat indus­try aren’t going to show you the math I just did.

It doesn’t fit the meme and there is no profit for them in it.

To be fair, there is absolutely noth­ing wrong if per­son decides that 1% increase war­rants decreas­ing one’s intake of processed meats, if an indi­vid­ual thinks the increased risk isn’t worth it it’s their life and their choice to make.

But if you do make that choice do so on the actual evi­dence not due to panic and deception.

Update: Two Insta­lances & a hotair head­line thanks Sarah Ed & Ed While you’re here in addi­tion to my appeal below check out my elec­tion cov­er­age includ­ing my exclu­sive inter­view with Ted Cruz last week.

****************************************************************************

There unfor­tu­nately isn’t a lot of profit from let­ting peo­ple know they’re being played. The only pay I get for this work comes from you. My goal for 2015 is $22,000 I’m a full 17k shy as of today.

Given that fact and the dis­cov­ery that the repairs needed for my car that failed inspec­tion will run between $500-$1000 I would ask you to please con­sider hit­ting DaTipJar.




[olimome­ter id=14]

That gets all the bills paid. Con­sider Sub­scrib­ing 100 Sub­scribers at $20 a month will get the job done and then some.


Choose a Sub­scrip­tion level



Addi­tion­ally our sub­scribers get our pod­cast emailed directly to them before it show up any­where else.

I know you can get the MSM for noth­ing, but that’s pretty much what most of them are worth.

Yesterday all over the web and on TV shows everywhere (even from sane folks like Jake Tapper) about the horrible terrible news that your bacon will be the death of you.

The WHO findings were drafted by a panel of 22 international experts who reviewed decades of research on the link between red meat, processed meats and cancer. The panel reviewed animal experiments, studies of human diet and health, and cell processes that could explain how red meat might cause cancer.

But the panel’s decision was not unanimous, and by raising lethal concerns about a food that anchors countless American meals, it will be controversial

That’s the Washington Post, at Yahoo they say this:

Each 50-gram (1.8-ounce) portion of processed meat eaten daily increases the risk of colorectal cancer by 18 percent, the agency estimated.

A 50-gram portion would be the equivalent of eating one hot dog or two slices of bacon. Americans eat about 21.7 grams of processed pork per day, according to a 2011 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

Right now a lot of lawyers are licking their chops and a lot of members of the food Gestapo are preparing to demand changes in school heath programs, school diets etc etc and I can feel the sheer panic among shoppers at whole foods from here.

And the reason why this is coming?  Well there are two:

  1. Americans are really ignorant about math
  2. What are the actual odds of getting colorectal cancer?

Question #1 matters because while most people hear the words “18% increase” and think that their odds of getting this disease have gone to better than 1-5 the reality is that means the odds have gone up 18% from what they actually were.  For example if something has a 1% chance of happening if you increase the chances of that thing happening by 18%  the new odds are not 19% as some would think but 1.1%  (1/100) * (118/100) or 118/10000 = 1.1%

And Question #2 matters because we can’t find out what the actual new odds are for a particular event until we know what the old odds are, how will we know what number to multiply by 118/100?

Well the answer to question 2 is available online at cancer.org.  Going by their charts men have a lifetime risk of developing colorectal cancer of 1 in 21 or 4.84% and the odds of a woman catching the same disease is 4.49 or 1 in 22

So even though we know that according to the stats given we eat only 43.4% of a hot dog per day on avg let’s assume for the sake of argument that you actually eat a hotdog every single day for your entire life. what does that do to your cancer odds.

Well if you do the actual math and multiply 4.84/100 by 118/100 it mans that 18% increase makes a man’s odds of getting colorectal cancer  go to 5.7% .  For a woman that 4.49/100 multiplied by 118/100 the woman’s odds go up to 5.2%

In other words, if this study is absolutely positively spot on correct eating that hotdog every single day for your entire life raises your odds of catching colorectal cancer by nearly but not quite….1%.

Or to put it another way if you’re a gamer if you eat that hotdog a day then your odds of catching colorectal cancer go from being about the odds of rolling a 1 on a D20 to about the odds of rolling a 1 on a D20.

Now when you put it that way, if you told a guy that giving up bacon decreases your odds of getting cancer by less that 1% most people would decide those odds aren’t worth panicking over and would rightly consider such panic as idiotic.

Which is why newspapers that make a living off of scary click bait, tv shows that make money off of scary click bait, NGO’s that make money off of scary panics, and pols who get big contributions from NGO’s after they get taxpayer-funded grants and colleges who get funding from taxpayer and NGO’s to study these things, and lawyers who make money off of suing successfully profitable businesses, like for example the meat industry aren’t going to show you the math I just did.

It doesn’t fit the meme and there is no profit for them in it.

To be fair, there is absolutely nothing wrong if person decides that 1% increase warrants decreasing one’s intake of processed meats, if an individual thinks the increased risk isn’t worth it it’s their life and their choice to make.

But if you do make that choice do so on the actual evidence not due to panic and deception.

Update: Two Instalances & a hotair headline thanks Sarah Ed & Ed While you’re here in addition to my appeal below check out my election coverage including my exclusive interview with Ted Cruz last week.

****************************************************************************

There unfortunately isn’t a lot of profit from letting people know they’re being played. The only pay I get for this work comes from you. My goal for 2015 is $22,000 I’m a full 17k shy as of today.

Given that fact and the discovery that the repairs needed for my car that failed inspection will run between $500-$1000 I would ask you to please consider hitting DaTipJar.




Olimometer 2.52

That gets all the bills paid. Consider Subscribing 100 Subscribers at $20 a month will get the job done and then some.


Choose a Subscription level



Additionally our subscribers get our podcast emailed directly to them before it show up anywhere else.

I know you can get the MSM for nothing, but that’s pretty much what most of them are worth.

%d bloggers like this: